Apple traditionally adheres to a two-year cycle with its process nodes, with the 7nm and 5nm technologies each lasting for two years. However, it appears that Apple is poised to implement the 3nm process for a third consecutive year in the upcoming iPhone 17 series. There are several factors contributing to this trend, which we will explore further.
Three-Year Silicon Cycle
While this isn’t the first instance of using the same process node for three years, the previous occurrence was not particularly obvious.
Apple launched the A14 chipset in 2020, marking the introduction of Apple Silicon based on TSMC’s 5nm architecture, followed by the A15, which utilized the second generation 5nm process in 2021. Subsequently, the A16 chipset debuted with the iPhone 14 Pro in 2022, which was manufactured using a “4nm” process.
It’s worth noting, however, that despite the public naming of 4nm, TSMC categorizes the N4 process used in the A16 Bionic as part of the broader “5nm technology family”:
TSMC is continually expanding its 5nm technology portfolio to address diverse customer needs, including N5P, N4, and N4P for improved power, performance, and density; N4X for high-performance computing (HPC) applications; and N5A for automotive applications.
The development of next-generation silicon manufacturing tech has slowed considerably, leading to what now resembles a three-year release cycle. In fact, the first 3nm chips in Apple products only appeared in 2023 due to Apple opting for an early variant of the 3nm process (N3B) that many other companies chose to bypass.
Expected Timeline for 2nm: iPhone 17 vs. iPhone 18
Initial speculation indicated that the iPhone 17 would be built using TSMC’s innovative 2nm process. However, current insights suggest otherwise, and supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo anticipates that the iPhone 17 lineup will feature the third generation 3nm process, N3P:
The processors for the iPhone 17 models, set to debut in 2025, will utilize TSMC’s N3P 3-nanometer technology. Meanwhile, the processors for the iPhone 18 models anticipated for 2026 are expected to leverage TSMC’s 2-nanometer technology. However, not all new iPhone 18 models may incorporate a 2nm processor due to cost constraints.
As Kuo noted, the iPhone 17 series will not be utilizing 2nm, so if you’re in search of the latest advancements in silicon technology, you might want to wait for the iPhone 18 Pro models.
It is likely that the standard iPhone 18 variants will continue to use 3nm chips, potentially featuring either the same third generation N3P process as the iPhone 17 or perhaps the fourth generation N3X process. Only time will tell.
2nm Production Timeline
TSMC is projected to initiate risk production of its first-generation 2nm process (N2) sometime in 2025, with substantial volume production following later in the year. This timing could theoretically align with the iPhone 17’s launch; however, Apple appears to be opting for a different strategy.
This decision is not unprecedented, as the initial 3nm process also began volume production in late 2022, yet Apple chose to wait an additional year before adoption.
Moreover, Apple is expected to bypass 2nm in its M5 chip series for Macs and iPads, as these will also utilize the third generation 3nm process, according to The Elec (via MacRumors).
Given current reports, it may take until 2026 at the earliest for us to witness 2nm chips in Apple products.
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