The Battle Between Aviation and Warfare

In the debate between bitcoin and gold, gold holds the senior position in the market. Bitcoin does not serve as digital gold; it has distinct purposes. Nonetheless, there are parallels between these two assets. While my bitcoin-themed socks were a hit at LEAP 2025 in Riyadh, they do not leave the same impression as a gold Vacheron Constantine watch, admiring a building adorned in gold leaf, or enjoying a gold-coated steak at Salt Bae’s restaurant in Dubai. Gold has been ingrained in our history through natural selection, a truth that is still apparent in the bars and nightclubs of Monaco.

Bitcoin is more apt as a means for the wealthy to escape, and we can envision many characters opting for crypto to extricate themselves from dire circumstances instead of cumbersome stacks of cash or gold. However, the reality is that crypto isn’t an ideal store of wealth. Apologies to the enthusiasts – Bitcoin lacks security. The concept of a cold wallet is misleading; there’s no absolute zero in terms of security. Fort Knox boasts more protection than Satoshi’s wallet. It’s disheartening that seemingly ‘secure’ crypto systems frequently show themselves to be as fragile as a gold Rolex in a sketchy neighborhood at 1 a.m. This is just one of many current weaknesses in crypto that prevent bitcoin from ever substituting gold or even traditional fiat currency.

However, let’s put aside the ongoing debate between the bitcoin maximalists and gold advocates, and instead focus on the present circumstances.

Bitcoin currently finds itself in a state of equilibrium. This equilibrium is noisy, as one might expect, but it is evident that, for now, it is stagnant. Nevertheless, when a move does occur, it is bound to be significant – either soaring upward or plummeting downward:

This may seem obvious, but for traders, it is crucial. A breakout is imminent, and traders will seize the opportunity. Prior to a breakout, excluding unexpected developments, the trading range typically tightens as the market deliberates. When volatility dips to low levels, the breakout occurs. This pattern has been evident in previous Bitcoin surges, and I’ve leveraged it to forecast breakouts. A similar situation is likely to unfold – unless an unforeseen event disrupts the trend.

In my view, the current setup is not bullish; it seems delicately balanced. However, the recent bubble in crypto AI tokens, which surged then collapsed, does not bode well for further crypto optimism, as historically such excess has indicated an end to the rally. Still, it’s not time to concede defeat – the best course is to observe and wait.

On the flip side, gold presents a completely different narrative:

The chart illustrates a classic boom pattern, characterized by a steep upward curve.

Currently, gold is experiencing a surge while Bitcoin remains confined to a volatile range.

Gold symbolizes war; bitcoin represents flight. The former might precede the latter, and both could experience significant growth. However, that is mere speculation. The core principle is to trade based on observable trends rather than assumptions. As of now, the charts indicate that gold is the favored asset, while crypto appears fatigued.

To me, there is no fundamental conflict between gold and crypto; they are both dollar-denominated assets, not the reverse. However, only gold presents itself as a strong one-way bet.

Keep in mind that a chart reflects past events, and gold’s current trading position may well signal the impact of the U.S. actions on Europe this week. If the U.S. stance is strategic – which it should be – gold will likely continue its upward trajectory.

Gold represents preparedness for war.