According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $77,000 and still maintain its bull market status in 2025.
In several posts on X dated February 19, Ki indicated that a 30% decline in BTC’s price would keep the upward trend in accordance with historical patterns.
CryptoQuant CEO predicts no Bitcoin bear market “this year”
Despite a month of stagnant BTC price movement and the absence of momentum to reach $100,000, Bitcoin is still considered to be in a “bull cycle.”
Ki from CryptoQuant believes that higher price levels will persist throughout the next year, despite the sluggish beginning.
“I don’t anticipate entering a bear market this year,” he stated while examining the cost basis across different Bitcoin investor groups.
“We remain in a bull cycle. Eventually, the price will rise, though the range appears extensive. I personally believe that the bull cycle could continue even with a -30% drop from ATH (e.g., 110K → 77K), as seen in previous cycles.”
Bitcoin investor cost basis data. Source: Ki Young Ju/X
A local floor at $77,000 would ensure that BTC/USD remains above the all-time highs of the previous cycle, establishing it as a favored downside target for traders looking to solidify market support.
Ki pointed out several cost bases of interest, notably that of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors at $89,000, which has acted as support since November.
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, new Bitcoin whales have the same net buy-in level, reinforcing its significance as a potential turnaround point in the event of a broader market decline.
Traders on the global exchange Binance have a much lower aggregate breakeven point at $59,000, while Bitcoin mining companies would incur losses if it dipped to $57,000.
Ki emphasized that “falling below this level in past downturns (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) marked the confirmation of a bear market.”
Post-halving performance suggests BTC price growth
In a broader view, CryptoQuant indicated that there is potential for further BTC price increases this cycle, with analyst Timo Oinonen describing it as “unfinished.”
Related: Bitcoin hints at breakdown in August 2023 as analysis focuses on $85K BTC price
Oinonen elaborated in a “Quicktake” blog post on February 17 that since last April’s block subsidy halving event, BTC/USD has achieved only about a 60% gain.
“Despite the ongoing halving cycle, I would expect a sell in May effect, a sideways movement during the summer, and higher price levels in the final quarter. The positive seasonality in Q4 has been noted in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024,” Oinonen concluded.
“A more significant correction could be several months or possibly a year away.”
BTC/USD comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers are urged to perform their own research prior to making any decisions.
