Despite many ridiculing Elon Musk’s lukewarm — and mathematically dubious — assertion that Americans might receive a rebate due to federal budget cuts, President Donald Trump appears to be keeping the dream alive, leading people to believe it could actually happen.
The mathematics suggest it’s improbable that taxpayers will benefit from any stimulus checks, much less an amount of significance. Regardless of what Musk might claim to cut through his DOGE initiatives—which remains subject to debate—Republicans are likely to seek the majority of those savings for future tax reductions.
Yet, Trump has maintained a sense of optimism.
“There’s even a novel idea being considered, where we allocate 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and another 20% towards paying down the national debt,” Trump stated during a speech in Miami.
During his initial term, Trump reaped the benefits of pandemic relief checks — enacted by Democrats — that bore his signature when distributed. Many Americans, unaware that Trump and the Republicans had opposed the checks, mistakenly believed they were his doing.
The contentious DOGE initiative, managed by Musk, claims responsibility for saving the country approximately $55 billion through mass layoffs and other government spending cuts, though concrete details are scarce.
With ongoing legal challenges, confusion surrounding the layoffs, and online investigations questioning DOGE’s claimed savings, the actual figures remain somewhat elusive.
“I will check with the President,” Musk responded on X to a suggestion from an investment firm about creating a “tax refund check to be issued after the expiration of DOGE in July 2026, funded entirely by a portion of the total savings generated by DOGE.”
If DOGE manages to achieve its target of $2 trillion in annual savings—which Musk has somewhat retracted—it could theoretically yield about $5,000 per household; some estimates suggest it could reach as much as $8,000—provided that these savings are not redirected to tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations.
However, there’s little evidence that any payments will ever materialize, prompting criticism on social media.
“Can someone explain how issuing a ‘Doge dividend’ would help reduce our deficit and national debt? It would essentially counter the purpose of what DOGE is supposed to achieve,” remarked Brian Krassenstein on X. “Why not tax corporations a bit more and use that revenue to provide a real dividend — one that genuinely aids the middle class?”
DOGE has faced significant backlash and scrutiny as Musk and his team hastily eliminated costs by terminating grants, contracts, and downsizing the federal workforce while simultaneously gaining access to sensitive data from U.S. citizens.
Thousands of federal employees were dismissed during the first month of President Donald Trump’s tenure.
The impact extends beyond the national capital region, which is home to about 20% of the 2.4 million civilian federal workforce members, excluding military personnel and postal workers. Over 80% of that workforce resides outside the D.C. area.
No definitive numbers are available regarding the total layoffs or firings. The Associated Press has compiled information on how various agencies have been affected based on their reports and statements from lawmakers and employee unions.
The White House proposed a “deferred resignation” plan, offering financial incentives such as months of paid leave to nearly all federal employees who chose to resign by February 6.
Reporter Matt Arco contributed to this report.
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