What If Gold Disappears? Exploring Bitcoin and the Future of Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Elon Musk is known for his flair as much as his engineering skills, and his proposal to have his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) livestream a visit to Fort Knox exemplifies this. According to media reports, the idea is to arrive at America’s most renowned gold vault and reveal to the public what lies (or doesn’t) behind its massive steel doors.

While some may dismiss it as a publicity stunt, many Americans, faced with overwhelming government corruption, inflation, and diminishing trust in institutions, find themselves quite intrigued. A live reveal of the national gold reserves could create quite the event.

The timing is particularly significant due to the ongoing issues with the international gold market. The Bank of England is struggling to meet physical gold withdrawal requests, with delays stretching from the usual 2–3 days to as long as 4–8 weeks, raising alarms about the true state of its gold reserves. This strain is exacerbated by a surge in demand for gold deliveries, increased shipments to U.S. COMEX warehouses, and various global political uncertainties. Critics suggest the Bank may be practicing fractional reserve methods, lending or leasing gold it doesn’t physically possess, which could lead to liquidity issues. These delays, along with vague explanations citing logistical challenges, have fueled speculation that the Bank is racing to reacquire gold to fulfill its commitments. If these issues persist, they could erode trust in the Bank of England’s role as a global custodian and destabilize broader financial market confidence.

Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, peaking at $2,956.22 per ounce in February due to strong demand driven by inflation hedging, geopolitical tensions, and central bank accumulation. Following a 25% increase in 2024, gold has already risen 10.35% this year and is expected to exceed $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025, with some predictions indicating it could climb to $3,200–$3,300 later in the year. Analysts attribute this bullish trend to falling interest rates, rising ETF inflows, and ongoing global economic uncertainties, reinforcing gold’s position as a safe-haven asset.

Beyond the mere spectacle of it all, a more profound question arises: regardless of what is discovered at Fort Knox, will anyone truly care?

What Occurred in 1971?

It’s likely that many people will care, though their concerns may stem from a misunderstanding of the dollar’s mechanics. A surprising number of Americans still believe their currency is directly linked to gold. Recently, I spoke to a friend who is literally a rocket scientist, and he was astonished to discover that the dollar has not been redeemable for gold since 1971.

In that pivotal year, President Nixon “temporarily” halted gold convertibility, effectively dismantling the Bretton Woods system. This moment, known as the Nixon Shock, marked the transition from a gold-backed monetary system to the free-floating fiat currencies we use today. Over half a century later, we can observe numerous intriguing correlations between this decoupling and foundational shifts in American life. Yet, people either overlook or remain unaware that their cash is no longer backed by any physical commodity.

Nonetheless, the federal government still possesses approximately 8,133 tons of gold—by far the largest state-owned gold reserve in the world. This begs the question: Why?

One reason could be historical inertia. The U.S. amassed gold throughout the twentieth century under various presidents, from FDR (who famously confiscated private gold in 1933) to Eisenhower, during whose administration holdings peaked at around 20,000 metric tons. Subsequent administrations have seen significant outflows or sales. Still, thousands of tons remain accounted for. The sheer amount of gold held by the federal government is enough that its sudden disappearance could trigger a shockwave through global markets unlike anything seen in recent financial history.

Even though it no longer backs the dollar, America’s gold reserves serve multiple strategic functions. Central banks around the world continue to regard gold as a vital backup, and for the U.S., the large quantity of bullion may offer a psychological buffer. In times of profound economic turmoil, gold reserves can be utilized to stabilize currencies or provide collateral. Historically, no fiat currency has existed without initially being pegged to gold. Despite the dollar’s current non-redeemability in gold, it owes its existence to that earlier redeemability.

It’s been decades since a substantial re-evaluation or gold-based policy has taken place, but the existence of these thousands of massive bars secured in Kentucky reinforces the belief that the U.S. has mechanisms to safeguard its currency beyond just military force. Whether this relevance holds in an increasingly digital and inflation-ridden world remains debatable, but it is undeniable that one cannot simply disregard a gold reserve measured in thousands of tons.

That being said, only a handful of officials have actually witnessed this gold firsthand. Although the late 1970s saw official reports claiming that the vault was physically inventoried and tested, no comprehensive public audit has been conducted. This gap, coupled with the secrecy surrounding U.S. bullion reserves, has created an informational vacuum that conspiracy theories readily exploit. As such, the DOGE initiative to film a tour through Fort Knox represents a viable approach to illuminate a cornerstone of American governance.

Various Scenarios: Shortage, Surplus, or Status Quo

Speculating about the future of Fort Knox can lead to some extreme scenarios. If Musk and the DOGE team were to open those steel doors and find the vault only half full, the U.S. dollar’s reputation could suffer. People might start questioning whether other facets of U.S. power are similarly lacking. The ripple effects could be significant—creditors could lose confidence, bond yields might spike, and global markets could pivot in search of a new safe asset—or turn to gold itself. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine various government branches scrambling to mitigate the fallout, or the Fed implementing emergency measures to sustain faith in American fiscal integrity.

But what if everything aligns with official claims? In that case, conspiracy theories would evaporate overnight, and the federal government could proclaim, “We told you so.” The public might lose interest quickly, transforming the entire affair into a fleeting viral moment.

Then there’s the truly outrageous possibility: the vault could contain more gold than anticipated. Could the U.S. have maintained a secret stash off the records? Has it confiscated gold from dictators it has overthrown over the past century? Such a finding might enhance Washington’s financial clout internationally, but could also incite uncomfortable inquiries. While this scenario is perhaps unlikely, in a time when every official account is scrutinized, it’s interesting to ponder how the public would react if the quantities discovered were unequivocally “too good.”

Auditing Gold vs. Auditing Bitcoin

Beyond the discussions about Fort Knox lies a more serious conversation: gold, despite its grandeur, is challenging to verify in substantial quantities without costly and time-intensive methods. To confirm the authenticity of every bar in Fort Knox, meticulous weighing, measuring, and assaying would be necessary. Modern techniques like ultrasonic scanning can detect if any bars have been hollowed out or replaced with tungsten. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) devices can affirm surface purity but may be deceived by thick gold plating. Genuine certainty may require drill sampling and fire assays, which would destroy portions of the bars. Historically, occasional spot checks have sufficed to maintain trust. However, when the Perth Mint scandal emerged, or when tungsten-filled bars surfaced in Manhattan, the entire industry was reminded how easily confidence can be undermined.

Everyday individuals encounter the same problem at a smaller scale. For instance, if you wished to pay for a vehicle with gold coins, how would you verify their authenticity at the transaction point? You could utilize a handheld XRF device, which costs a few thousand dollars, or a conductivity tester like the Sigma Metal Verifier. While these methods are effective for one or two coins, they become impractical for larger transactions. The associated time and technological expenses highlight gold’s complications in day-to-day use. As Luke Broyles pointed out on X, “Every hour we waste debating if we should audit Fort Knox or not, Bitcoin gets audited six times.” Bitcoin’s auditing process is continuous. Every ten minutes, a new block is mined, and the entire network verifies it.

Auditing Bitcoin’s circulating supply is straightforward. Anyone operating a full node can execute a command, such as bitcoin-cli gettxoutsetinfo, to check how many coins are in existence. The result updates in real time as new blocks are generated. No specialized technology is needed; only a computer and internet connection. Should any miner attempt to inflate the supply, the consensus rules would reject that block. This stands in stark contrast to gold, where verifying thousands of bars could take weeks or months. Bitcoin was designed to minimize the need for trust, replacing it with open-source code and a public ledger. There’s no requirement to trust an auditor or an institution; you can confirm the circulating supply personally.

This fundamental distinction could be spotlighted by the DOGE spectacle. Even if America’s gold is all present, its verification process remains cumbersome, resource-intensive, and heavily reliant on institutional transparency. In contrast, Bitcoin provides continuous, trustless audits, making it a more dependable store of value for institutions. Should Musk’s Fort Knox livestream take place, it will draw global attention. The outcome could extend beyond mere entertainment; it might also inspire a newfound appreciation for the importance of auditability in finance, encouraging governments to contemplate strategic Bitcoin reserves—a sovereign store of value that any citizen can verify in real time without needing to set foot inside a fortress of steel and stone.