Some analysts are forecasting a robust resurgence for bitcoin as summer approaches, following a challenging period for the leading cryptocurrency.
Economist Timothy Peterson discussed his analysis of bitcoin’s historical price trends on his X account, formerly known as Twitter, @nsquaredvalue, suggesting that the cryptocurrency will break free from its current stagnation in April, gradually recovering value through May to hit $126,000 by June 1.
Why It Matters
Despite initial optimism that the inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20—who promised to implement favorable policies for the industry—would catalyze a boom for cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and several major tokens have seen substantial losses since his administration began.
Growing worries about a potential U.S. recession have led some to speculate that bitcoin might become a safe-haven asset akin to gold if the country were to face a prolonged economic downturn. Conversely, others predict that a recession could further diminish the value of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
What To Know
Peterson’s price projection is grounded in the historical pattern of bitcoin’s bull runs, which have typically occurred in April and October.
In October 2024, bitcoin appreciated approximately 12 percent before embarking on an unprecedented post-election surge, peaking at an all-time high of $109,115 on January 20, according to CoinMarketCap. Currently, the cryptocurrency is trading near $83,500, having dropped over 23 percent since the inauguration. Last week, it fell below $80,000 for the first time since November.
Since reentering office, Trump has acted on some of his commitments regarding bitcoin. He appointed David Sacks, a notable figure in the crypto community, as the first-ever “White House AI & Crypto Czar,” and held the inaugural White House crypto summit on March 7.
On March 6, the president announced the establishment of a Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to explore possibilities for building a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile,” which will likely include Ethereum and other tokens mentioned by Trump.
However, these moves did not result in a significant price surge as anticipated; it was revealed that the strategic reserve would only be replenished with bitcoin seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases, rather than through large-scale purchases of the cryptocurrency by the government.
While Peterson remains hopeful about bitcoin’s potential rebound, others caution that its decline may not be over, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could soon enter a bear market. Financial commentator Peter Schiff argues that this forecast is informed by bitcoin’s historical relationship with broader stock market movements.
Peterson himself previously noted that his “Lowest Price Forward” metric indicated a 5 percent risk that bitcoin could dip below $69,000.
What People Are Saying
Economist and bitcoin analyst Timothy Peters stated on X: “Bitcoin is trading near the low end of its historical seasonal range. Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October. It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.”
Stockbroker Peter Schiff, in an article for ChainCatcher on Monday, wrote: “The Nasdaq index has currently fallen by 12 percent. If this adjustment evolves into a bear market, and the correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin remains unchanged, then when the Nasdaq’s decline reaches 20%, the price of Bitcoin may still hover around $65,000. However, if the Nasdaq enters a genuine bear market, the decline could exceed 20%.”
“Overall, if this stock market crash adheres to historical patterns, gold may emerge as the ultimate safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin’s market positioning will face significant challenges,” Schiff added.
What Happens Next?
Various factors may still impact bitcoin’s future gains, complicating hopes for a strong recovery, including a looming economic downturn and rising inflation. Despite a stronger-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) reading last week, coupled with other data suggesting a significant slowdown in inflation, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has indicated that “nationalistic” policies such as tariffs and deportations could alter this trajectory.
“I think if we all are becoming a little more nationalistic—and I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, you know, it does resonate with me—that it’s going to have elevated inflation,” Fink said during a recent conference, as reported by Reuters.
