A prominent economist from the United States has indicated a connection between gold, NASDAQ, and Bitcoin, suggesting that a downturn in NASDAQ often precedes a decline in Bitcoin.
Peter Schiff elaborated in a post about the relationship between Bitcoin’s status and NASDAQ’s performance, emphasizing the inverse correlation between gold and NASDAQ.
Connection Between NASDAQ and Bitcoin
Schiff, known for his skepticism towards Bitcoin, informed his followers on X that the weakening of the financial market could impact the flagship cryptocurrency’s price, stating that a drop in NASDAQ typically results in Bitcoin’s decline.
He noted that NASDAQ is currently down by 12%, which could have implications for Bitcoin. “If this correction leads to a bear market, and the correlation indicating a 12% fall in NASDAQ corresponds to a 24% drop in Bitcoin remains valid, then with a 20% decline in NASDAQ, Bitcoin could approach $65K,” he stated.
The NASDAQ is down 12%. If this correction turns out to be a bear market, and the correlation where a 12% decline in the NASDAQ equates to a 24% decline in Bitcoin holds, when the NASDAQ is down 20%, Bitcoin will be about $65K.
But if the NASDAQ goes into a bear market, history…
— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) March 16, 2025
However, Schiff contended that once NASDAQ transitions into a bear market, the drop would likely be significantly greater, referencing past experiences.
He recounted that following the Dot-com bubble burst, NASDAQ fell nearly 80%, during the 2008 financial crisis it dropped by 55%, and recently, in the pandemic crash of 2020, it decreased by around 30%.
“The average decline across those three bear markets is 55%. If this bear market concludes with merely a 40% decline, Bitcoin would be around $20K. However, I suspect that a drop of that size would trigger an even sharper decline for Bitcoin,” he remarked.
Gold Continues to Shine
Despite his bearish view on Bitcoin, Schiff expressed a more favorable perspective on gold, citing a negative correlation with NASDAQ.
He mentioned that since NASDAQ reached its peak on December 16, 2023, gold has appreciated by 13%, showcasing an almost perfect 1-to-1 correlation.
“Should that correlation persist, a 40% drop in NASDAQ would indicate gold could surpass $3,800. Nevertheless, my assumption is that if a bear market coincides with a significant decline in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, gold will surge even higher,” he explained in a post.
Comparison of Gold and Bitcoin
Schiff argued that even with gold priced at $3,800 and Bitcoin at $20,000, in terms of gold, Bitcoin’s value would have decreased by 85%, which would further undermine the argument that Bitcoin acts as a store of value comparable to gold.
“There will undoubtedly be no justification for the US government or any state government to retain Bitcoin within a Strategic Reserve. Furthermore, ETF investors will lack reason to continue holding their positions. Given all the selling pressure, it will be impossible for $MSTR to offload enough Bitcoin to stave off bankruptcy,” he stated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $82,433 and has a market capitalization exceeding $1.6 trillion.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
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