Tony “The Bull” Severino has issued a warning to the crypto community about the risks of comparing Bitcoin’s current cycle to its historic bull run in 2017. The technical analyst points out that a key indicator on the monthly chart reveals a much different scenario than what many investors might be hoping for. Severino’s caution comes as Bitcoin continues to trade within the range of $81,000 to $84,500, indicating that the buying momentum may be reaching a peak.
Stochastic Oscillator Indicates Bitcoin Is Not in the Same Phase as 2017
Central to Severino’s assessment is the stochastic oscillator, a momentum indicator widely utilized by technical analysts to determine whether a cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold in relation to its recent price movements. When applied to Bitcoin on the monthly candlestick timeframe, this oscillator provides a broader view of long-term momentum trends dating back to 2013. The chart Severino shared encompasses all major bull and bear cycles, along with recurring patterns.
This perspective responds to market participants who correlate the current movement of the 1-month Bitcoin stochastic oscillator with its past positions in 2017, using it as an indicator of future market behavior. As depicted in the chart below, the oscillator has been following the same downward trajectory seen in 2017 since early 2025. As of this writing, the oscillator stands at around 60, aligning with the level it reached during the correction of the 2017 bull market.
However, Severino contends that this level bears little resemblance to the momentum peak experienced during the 2017 bull run; instead, it is more akin to the onset of the 2018 bear market. At that point in the cycle, Bitcoin experienced a dramatic 49% decrease within just one month, from wick high to wick low.
Severino suggests that any perceived similarities to the 2017 bull market are deceptive from a bullish technical viewpoint, implying that the leading cryptocurrency might be on the verge of entering a similar corrective or bearish phase.
Bitcoin Price Could Move Either Way
Recent price movements show Bitcoin struggling to generate significant inflows and buying momentum. On-chain data indicates that many short-term holders have ceased their buying activity due to the prolonged consolidation, which does not bode well for bullish expectations. Additionally, the realized price model suggests that the ongoing correction may still have several weeks left to play out.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin has managed to hold steady and avoid slipping below $80,000 amid the recent market turbulence. The announcement of proposed tariffs by US President Donald Trump caused widespread market volatility, affecting not just crypto but also major US equity markets.
As the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ experienced setbacks, Bitcoin dipped toward the $81,000 mark. However, in contrast to its stock market counterparts, it has since bounced back, reclaiming territory above $83,000, which might signal early signs of decoupling from traditional financial indices.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $83,693.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
