The current market instability, driven by the ongoing trade tariff conflict, has caused Bitcoin (BTC) to dip below the $75,000 threshold for the first time since November. Although it has bounced back from this decline, the leading cryptocurrency may face further short-term fluctuations unless it can re-establish crucial support levels promptly.
Bitcoin Reaches 5-Month Lows
By the end of the week, Bitcoin’s pricing fell beneath the $80,000 support level, wrapping up Sunday below the $78,500 mark. Early Monday saw the premier cryptocurrency by market cap continuing its decline towards the $74,500 support area before rebounding.
During the 9.1% decline, Bitcoin recorded its lowest trading price in five months, mirroring levels from November 6. Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that BTC has been operating below its Bull Market Support Band for several weeks, making attempts to reclaim this level but facing consistent rejection.
As noted by the trader, “This is a valuable metric for assessing high timeframe market momentum. To date, during this cycle, prices have dipped below it briefly several times (2023 & 2024) but have not moved away from it for much more than ~20%,” indicating that bulls are eager to reclaim this area.
Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC’s current pullback is “very close to matching the retracement depth of the Post-Halving decline of nearly -33%.” This ongoing correction has seen Bitcoin drop 31% since reaching an all-time high (ATH) of $108,786 in January. Nonetheless, he believes Bitcoin could slide into the $70,000 support range before bottoming out in this correction.
“Historical data shows that when Bitcoin’s Daily RSI dips into the sub-28 levels, it doesn’t necessarily signal a price bottom. In fact, typically, the actual price bottom occurs between -0.32% to -8.44% lower than the price at the initial RSI low,” he added, mentioning that Bitcoin appears to be forming its second low, which is 2-79% beneath the first low.
If this pattern continues and Bitcoin drops 8.44% below the first low, investors might see a price bottom around the $69,000-$70,000 range.
Is Another 10% Correction on the Horizon?
Furthermore, Rekt Capital outlined the critical levels that need to be reclaimed following BTC’s weekly close beneath the $80,650 support. The analyst remarked that Bitcoin has already made “upside attempts at this level, marking it as a potential new resistance” for this week.
To challenge the 2025 Weekly Downtrend, Bitcoin must regain last week’s closing level, and it also needs to maintain Sunday’s daily close at $78,500.
Bitcoin struggled to achieve a Daily Close above the Downtrend. In fact, the price continued forming new Lower Highs within its prolonged series of Lower Highs. Following the latest rejection, BTC fell into the ~$78,500 lows. If this level holds as support, BTC has a chance to challenge the $82,500 level in the short term.
The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin generally needs to close above the $78,500 level to “establish a foundation here for a potential short-term bounce.” Conversely, a daily close below this level could position BTC for a bearish retest after two consecutive days below it.
He concluded that “failing to reclaim this level as a confirmed resistance could result in further downside, targeting the pre-halving highs in the $69,000 to $72,000 range.”
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $79,200, reflecting a 1% increase over the daily timeframe.
