In an investor note dated April 15, 2025, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, provided an analysis of Bitcoin’s recent trading trends that might surprise both its critics and advocates. He stated, “Bitcoin is behaving like an asset eager to rise, provided macro hurdles are removed.”
As per Hougan, Bitcoin’s price on April 14 was approximately $84,379, marginally up from $84,317 a month prior—a negligible change of 0.07% in a 30-day span. This stable performance occurred amidst two major geopolitical developments: the United States announcing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and President Donald Trump implementing extensive tariffs on various countries.
The strength Bitcoin has demonstrated during this time starkly contrasts with the broader decline in traditional financial markets. Hougan highlighted that the S&P 500, which reached its peak on February 19, has decreased by 12.0%, while Bitcoin has experienced a comparable dip of 12.4% since then.
He found this correlation remarkable, especially because it deviates from Bitcoin’s past behavior in market downturns. For example, during the 2022 correction, the S&P 500 dropped 24.5%, whereas Bitcoin plummeted by 58.3%. Similarly, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, stocks fell 33.8%, while Bitcoin declined by 38.1%. In late 2018, amid rising trade tensions between the U.S. and China, equities fell by 19.36%, with Bitcoin dropping by 37.22%. This historical pattern has reinforced the belief that when stocks decline, Bitcoin invariably suffers a more severe downturn.
In his latest commentary, Hougan highlighted how different the current circumstances feel. Rather than being battered significantly more than the equity market, Bitcoin is now closely mirroring stock losses. He acknowledged that this alone does not qualify Bitcoin as a definitive hedge asset, noting, “Critics may argue that matching the performance of stocks during a downturn doesn’t equate to being a hedge asset and point out that gold has outperformed Bitcoin during this pullback. That is accurate.”
However, he asserted that Bitcoin’s stability around the $80,000 threshold during global market turbulence serves as a testament to its enduring strength amidst various macroeconomic shocks. “If that doesn’t instill confidence in its resilience, I’m not sure what will,” he remarked.
Hougan believes we are witnessing a transformative stage in Bitcoin’s development. He explained that the cryptocurrency has traditionally been influenced by two opposing forces: it has acted as a risk asset, tied to substantial upside potential and volatility, while also occasionally behaving like a hedge similar to gold.
In Bitcoin’s earlier days, the risk-asset aspect often prevailed; during significant equity sell-offs, investors typically dismissed Bitcoin more swiftly and aggressively than they would stocks. Presently, with more companies integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, institutional investors considering it for diversified portfolios, and governments—like the U.S.—adding it to strategic reserves, there seems to be a gradual shift towards Bitcoin being regarded more as “digital gold”.
Nonetheless, Hougan cautioned that investors should not underestimate the inherent unpredictability of the current macro landscape. He noted that equity markets may not have reached their bottom, raising the risk that more severe declines could expose Bitcoin’s vulnerabilities should widespread panic ensue.
He acknowledged that gold continues to exemplify classic safe-haven behavior during systemic shocks, meaning Bitcoin has yet to definitively prove that it can replace traditional hedges amid intense economic turmoil. Still, as he stated, “The world is unraveling, yet Bitcoin is trading above $80,000.”
Hougan emphasized that there is no certainty this trend will persist, particularly given the unpredictable outcomes that could arise from sudden tariff escalations or shifts in monetary policy. He concluded his note with, “Our baby is maturing into a macro asset. And witnessing that is a beautiful thing.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $85,200.
