Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to experience their most challenging first quarter in years unless a significant rally occurs in the coming days.
Ether
ETHUSD
has seen a decline of 37.98% so far this first quarter of 2025, marking its worst Q1 fall since 2018, when it dropped by 46.61%, according to CoinGlass data. In contrast, Bitcoin
BTCUSD
has decreased by 6.49% this quarter, which is poised to conclude on March 31 — representing its weakest Q1 performance since 2020, when it registered a 10.83% decline.
The crypto market is unlikely to show signs of recovery before the end of the quarter
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal stated to Cointelegraph that a “vertical swing up into the end of the quarter appears improbable.”
Hundal mentioned that the crypto market will be “flying a little blind” until mid-April when the broader market should gain better insight into US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans.
“The economic data indicates a global economy in reasonable condition,” he commented.
Some analysts suggest a significant Bitcoin rally could be only weeks away.
Crypto commentator Colin Talks Crypto mentioned in a March 19 X post that Bitcoin might experience its “next major blast-off” around April 30. Additionally, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten noted earlier this month that there’s over a 50% probability Bitcoin will reach all-time highs before June concludes.
Historically, the first quarter has been the strongest for Ether and the second best for Bitcoin. Since 2017, Ether has averaged a Q1 gain of 78.23%, while Bitcoin has seen an average return of 51.62% since 2013.
As of publication, Bitcoin is priced at $87,558, whereas Ether is trading at $2,059, reflecting increases of 5.08% and 5.88% over the past 24 hours, respectively.
In the meantime, the ETH/BTC ratio — which indicates Ether’s strength relative to Bitcoin — is at its lowest since May 2020, currently at 0.2348, as per TradingView data.
The wider crypto market has mirrored the downward trend of the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, with the entire crypto market capitalization reducing by 11.65% since January 1, now standing at $2.88 trillion at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Despite initial optimism in the crypto sector heading into Q1 2025, fueled by a strong finish in 2024 when Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark following Trump’s election victory in November, unforeseen macroeconomic factors played a significant role in the crypto market’s decline at the beginning of February.
Following Bitcoin’s dip below $100,000 in February, due to tariffs imposed by Trump and uncertainty surrounding the future of US federal interest rates, market sentiment shifted to a more cautious tone. As of March 26, the sentiment-tracking Crypto Fear & Greed Index recorded a “Neutral” score of 47.
This article does not contain any investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
