Prominent macro analyst and founder of Real Vision, Raoul Pal, has predicted that the current Bitcoin bull market could extend into 2026, surpassing the typical expectations of a peak in 2025. In his latest presentation, Pal examined various macroeconomic indicators, historical price trends, and liquidity metrics, asserting they suggest a robust long-term uptrend for digital assets.
Bitcoin Bull Market Relies on M2
Central to Pal’s argument is the concept of Global M2 money supply, a measure that tracks total liquidity in circulation globally. He noted that Bitcoin, like other risk-on assets, has shown a strong correlation with fluctuations in Global M2. “If this trend holds, then M2 will continue to rise throughout the year. Consequently, both crypto and risk assets like technology stocks are likely to perform well this year.”
By contrasting current liquidity trends with those from 2017—when the dollar weakened notably, and equity markets surged during US President Donald Trump’s initial term—Pal contends that the macroeconomic environment is similarly set for growth. He posits that if leading economies continue to ease their monetary policies, it could spark the next phase of significant crypto expansion.
Pal’s thesis emphasizes the influence of global liquidity, especially the Global M2 money supply as an early indicator for Bitcoin and risk assets. He showed a correlation between the growth of Global M2 and the performance of the crypto market, reiterating: “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all year. If that holds true, crypto and risk assets such as tech will thrive throughout the year.”
He draws parallels to 2017, a year when Trump’s fiscal policies and monetary easing led to a prolonged period of dollar weakness, fueling the crypto cycle. Similar circumstances appear to be unfolding now, with anticipations of interest rate reductions and stimulus initiatives.
A key element of Pal’s extended bull market theory is the business cycle, which he monitors through the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, an ISM figure above 50 indicates economic expansion, often correlating with surges in Bitcoin’s price. He remarked: “Bitcoin tends to rise as the ISM rises […] If the ISM peaks around its typical range of 56 to 65, we could see significant Bitcoin appreciation.”
If the ISM continues to trend upwards, Pal suggested that Bitcoin’s price might surpass $300,000 or more. However, he refrained from offering specific predictions, arguing that market analysis is driven by probabilities rather than certainties.
Concerning the altcoin market, Pal reaffirmed that Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) remain vital components of his portfolio. Despite Solana’s recent decline of over 53%, he dismissed concerns about a prolonged downturn: “Solana has deviated significantly compared to global M2 […] Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the remainder of the cycle, as will Ethereum, with Sui expected to outperform Solana.”
His broader perspective on altcoins hinges on shifts in risk appetite as financial conditions improve. Historically, altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin during the latter stages of a cycle when investors seek higher-risk opportunities. Pal challenged the idea that there would not be an altcoin season in this cycle, claiming, “That’s simply not true.”
Pal underscored that substantial pullbacks are an inherent characteristic, not a flaw, of crypto bull markets. He highlighted previous corrections, noting that this cycle has already experienced seven instances of 20% or more drops while still recording a 600% gain from its lows. He warned traders against using leverage and succumbing to panic selling, reinforcing his “Don’t F* This Up**” philosophy: “To achieve wealth and secure your future, you must learn to navigate volatility.”
He likened the present correction to the one observed in 2017, which had multiple 30-40% retracements before reaching its peak. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the market is currently among the most oversold in this cycle, indicating a potential recovery in the near future.
Prolonging the Cycle to 2026
One of Pal’s most notable claims is that the ongoing cycle may extend into 2026, rather than concluding in 2025 as many analysts predict. He justifies this by pointing to the extended period of economic stagnation preceding growth acceleration. He stated: “The business cycle has spent considerable time below 50. It seems to be beginning to expand now. This likely extends the cycle into 2026.”
Although he emphasized that this is not a prediction but rather a working hypothesis, the potential ramifications could be substantial. A prolonged cycle would enable higher valuations, consistent investment flows, and a gentler, rather than abrupt, market peak.
Pal reiterated that the crypto market follows a recognizable pattern, typically featuring a year-long “banana zone” of exponential growth. He observed that the current correction phase is consistent with past cycles and should pave the way for a renewed rally by April or May. “We are currently in correction phase one […] As we approach March, April, and May, we will likely start accelerating upward into the next phase of the banana zone.”
Nevertheless, he cautioned that investors should anticipate another significant correction before reaching the final market peak, urging caution against overleveraging and late-cycle exuberance.
In summary, Pal encouraged investors to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid emotional trading. He highlighted the necessity of patience, sound portfolio management, and foresight: “You all need patience more than anything else and need to comprehend market dynamics […] Our futures depend on understanding this.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $88,617.
