CME’s bitcoin futures, viewed as a barometer of institutional sentiment, fell sharply on Monday, reflecting bearish attitudes after President Donald Trump dismissed the likelihood of a trade agreement with China.
The futures contract set to expire on the last Friday of April opened at $79,590, representing a decline of 5.6% from Friday’s closing price of $84,250, and swiftly dropped to $76,800, according to CoinDesk data.
These declines coincided with a 900-point drop in Dow futures, a significant decline in Chinese stocks, and the Japanese equity market being subjected to lower circuit breakers, as JPMorgan, S&P Global, and Goldman Sachs raised concerns about an increased likelihood of a U.S. recession this year.
During a flight on Air Force One, Trump expressed to reporters his intent to address the trade deficit with China, stating, “Unless we solve that problem, I’m not going to make a deal.”
He also noted that many world leaders are eager to finalize an agreement. Last week, the President enacted extensive tariffs affecting 180 nations, which raised the overall levy on China to 54%. Financial markets have since struggled, but Trump believes this is a necessary step towards resolving the issue.
“I don’t want anything to go down, but sometimes you need to administer tough medicine to cure a problem,” Trump remarked.
Decline in CME Open Interest
Open interest in CME futures reached a peak of 281.57 BTC in December but has since plummeted to 140.5K, marking the lowest level since August 2024, as reported by Coinglass.
This plunge suggests that capital is exiting the digital asset market, potentially in anticipation of a further price decline.
Conversely, global futures and perpetual futures open interest outside the CME has surged from approximately 400K BTC to 520K BTC over the past month.
A rise in open interest during a price drop is often interpreted as confirmation of a bearish trend, indicating that traders are establishing short positions in a declining market.
