All eyes are focused on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set for tomorrow, March 19. Analysts believe the resulting interest rate decision could influence global risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), for the foreseeable future. The markets are anticipating a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate; however, the true catalyst for volatility may lie in the central bank’s revised Dot Plot, which reflects policymakers’ future rate projections.
Essential Insights for Bitcoin Investors
Despite a broad consensus anticipating no change in rates this time, the Dot Plot could shed light on the number of potential cuts remaining for the year. Participants are preparing for anywhere from one to three possible cuts.
Three cuts would indicate a more assertive move toward easing, often seen as bullish for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Two cuts would typically be perceived as neutral, suggesting a balanced policy strategy. On the other hand, one cut or fewer might be interpreted as bearish, signaling that the Fed may maintain a tight stance longer than expected.
Following the rate announcement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference approximately 30 minutes later, offering further insights into the central bank’s perspective. Investors interested in both Bitcoin and traditional assets will be keen to hear any indications regarding the potential conclusion of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Recent speculation suggests that should Powell hint at a tapering—or even a return to asset purchases—market sentiment may significantly improve, as noted by a senior strategist.
Kyledoops, a widely recognized technical analyst, commented, “Polymarket indicates a 100% chance that the Fed will conclude QT before May. If Powell even hints at ‘QE’ during the next FOMC, markets will react rapidly. However, knowing Powell, he’ll likely remain as ambiguous as possible.”
Notable crypto commentators are issuing strong yet varied warnings about the potential volatility that may arise once the Fed’s strategy is clarified. Cobak (@CobakOfficial) posted on X: “A substantial move is imminent! BTC has key liquidation thresholds at $81,640 & $84,800. With the FOMC rate decision on the horizon, where will Bitcoin move first?”
On a similar note, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) shared a cautiously optimistic viewpoint but expects continued “choppiness” until the announcement: “Weekly open is below, but targets remain above, still anticipating further fluctuation until FOMC. The range scenario persists, keeping an eye on the weekly open as I wouldn’t be shocked if it gets hit. The FOMC meeting is in two days, affirming our bottom call scenario.”
He elaborated that optimal trading prices often arise around the FOMC meeting itself, stating: “This induces more low-conviction traders… which is why the best prices (both tops and bottoms) seem to occur right before and just after FOMC… The opening of the candles consistently reflects current market conditions.”
Astronomer mentioned he’s monitoring the $80,900 area for “more longs,” while also theorizing that BTC could climb towards $87,000 if it breaks out above weekly open levels.
ING Notes Economic Slowdown
In a recent analysis, banking powerhouse ING highlighted a shifting macro landscape influenced by President Trump’s policy focus: “Following a 100bp drop in interest rates during late 2024, Chair Powell indicated the Fed isn’t in a rush to further ease policy, and a no-change decision is widely anticipated on March 19. However, President Trump’s spending cuts and protectionist trade policies are negatively impacting growth prospects and could compel the central bank’s actions in the latter half of 2025.”
ING emphasizes that while the Fed currently faces no pressing need to lower rates—thanks to solid employment figures and inflation “tracking hot”—growing downside risks could influence policymaking decisions: “Disappointing economic indicators and President Trump’s firm commitment to his policies have caused equity markets to adopt a more pessimistic view on economic prospects… We project that the Fed will largely uphold their forecasts… anticipating two 25bp rate cuts in the coming year. Nevertheless, given the cooling growth outlook, pressure for the Fed to provide further economic support is expected to increase.”
As of the time of writing, BTC is trading at $81,725.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
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