Bitcoin is poised for a bearish start as it wraps up the final trading day of March, potentially marking the weakest first quarter since 2018.
Concerns among crypto and stock traders stemming from US President Donald Trump’s new wave of 25% tariffs on car imports to the US, along with the looming threat of tariffs on the pharmaceutical sector, are evident in BTC’s recent downturn. Trump’s repeated mentions of April 2 as “Liberation Day,” when reciprocal tariffs are expected to be assigned to several countries, have also unsettled traders.
As of the latest update, stock futures have already turned negative, with DOW futures losing 206 points and S&P 500 futures falling by 0.56%. Following suit, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has also dipped, reaching $81,656 on March 30, marking the seventh consecutive day of lower lows.
US futures markets performance on March 30. Source: X / Spencer Hakimian
After a challenging quarter, equity markets appear to be on track to close down for the month, with the S&P 500 down 6.3%, and the Nasdaq and DOW reporting losses of 8.1% and 5.2%, respectively.
Bitcoin’s ongoing decline can be attributed to weak demand in spot markets and a visible trend of derisking as traders hesitate to initiate new positions in BTC’s futures markets.
Last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data revealed a larger-than-expected increase in inflation, while March’s consumer confidence figures from the Conference Board indicated that the monthly confidence index—a measure of respondents’ expectations regarding income, business, and job prospects—has reached a 12-year low.
Consumer confidence present situation and future expectations data. Source: The Conference Board
Related: Bitcoin bottom ‘likely’ at $80K, opening door for TON, CRO, MNT and RENDER to rally
Concerns about a recession are also growing, evidenced by a recent Goldman Sachs report which increased the 12-month recession probability from their previous 20% to 35%. According to the analysts at Goldman Sachs,
“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth forecast, the recent pronounced decline in household and business confidence, and remarks from White House officials indicating a higher tolerance for short-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”
US recession odds raised by Goldman Sachs. Source: X / Peter Berezin
Does Bitcoin’s downside have a silver lining?
Despite many crypto analysts publicly adjusting their bullish six-figure BTC price predictions and forecasting a return to Bitcoin’s swing lows in the mid $70,000 range, institutional investors are still actively buying, and net inflows to spot ETFs remain positive.
On March 30, Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, took to X to share his renowned orange dots Bitcoin chart, adding,
“Needs even more Orange.”
Strategy Bitcoin purchases. Source: X / Michael Saylor
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses have been on the rise throughout the month.
BTC: Inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
