Bitcoin
BTCUSD
appears to be at risk of entering a new bear market as a range of BTC price indicators have signaled a “bearish divergence.”
In a discussion on social media dated March 27, Bitcoin analysts highlighted concerning signals from the Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index.
Creator of Bitcoin Macro Index calls slump “not great”
While
BTCUSD
fights to regain the levels surrounding its all-time highs, onchain metrics are beginning to falter, losing their bullish momentum.
The Bitcoin Macro Index, launched by Capriole in 2022, employs machine learning to assess data from numerous metrics that founder Charles Edwards claims “provide a strong indicator of Bitcoin’s relative value through historical cycles.”
“The model exclusively analyzes onchain and macro-market data, and price data along with technical analysis are not used as model inputs,” he stated in the introduction to the tool at that time.
Since late 2023, the metric has been displaying lower highs while the price has been showing higher highs, resulting in a “bearish divergence.” Though this pattern has been observed in prior bull markets, it potentially indicates that
BTCUSD
may have already reached a long-term peak.
“Not great,” Edwards remarked while sharing a graphic of the Index that another user posted on X.
“However… when the Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won’t be opposing it.”
BTC price indicators face challenges
According to various analytics platforms, Bitcoin is grappling with macroeconomic challenges this year.
In a recent “Quicktake” blog entry, the onchain analytics service CryptoQuant pointed out four onchain metrics that are currently unstable.
“Each of these metrics indicates that Bitcoin is undergoing considerable turbulence in the short to medium term,” contributor Burak Kesmeci noted.
“Nonetheless, none of them suggest that Bitcoin has hit an overheated or cycle-top level.”
This list encompasses the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric and the Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), alongside the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which turned bearish in February.
For a positive shift to occur, Kesmeci concluded, the IFP needs to rise above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading action carries risk, and readers should perform their own due diligence before making decisions.
