The chief cryptocurrency researcher at 10x Research is not dismissing the possibility of Bitcoin repeating its 2024 price performance, during which it spent the majority of the year stabilizing after reaching record highs early on.
“It’s very possible,” Markus Thielen shared with Cointelegraph when he was inquired about Bitcoin’s (BTC) odds of mirroring a similar market trend as in 2024. In March 2024, Bitcoin achieved a record peak of $73,679 before transitioning into a consolidation phase, fluctuating within a range near $20,000 until Donald Trump was elected as the US president in November.
Current Bitcoin chart reflects “market indecision”
Thielen mentioned that he had this perspective even two months prior, around the time Bitcoin reached its latest all-time high of $109,000 on the day of Trump’s inauguration.
In his latest market analysis published on March 15, he noted that Bitcoin’s present chart is mirroring a “High and Tight Flag,” which, although typically regarded as a bullish continuation pattern, shows indications of fragility.
Bitcoin’s price chart is forming a High, Tight Flag Pattern. Source: 10x Research
“The presence of two flags rather than a single, clear formation weakens this setup,” Thielen explained.
“Consequently, the pattern currently indicates market indecision rather than a clear bullish consolidation,” he added.
Additionally, he noted that the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market does not reflect a “buy-the-dip” attitude.
“Little incentive” to capitalise on Bitcoin’s recent price drop
“This aligns with our perspective that the majority of ETF inflows have been driven by arbitrage-focused hedge funds. Given the consistently low funding rates, there’s minimal motivation or inclination to invest additional capital despite the recent price downturn,” Thielen remarked.
Since early March, when Bitcoin dipped below $90,000, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced total outflows amounting to approximately $1.66 billion, according to Farside data.
At the time of this publication, Bitcoin is trading at $84,290, as per CoinMarketCap, marking a 23% decrease from its $109,000 all-time high in January.
Bitcoin has declined by 12.86% in the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap
Thielen is uncertain whether Bitcoin’s upward trend will resume shortly. “Thus, it may be wise to close short positions at this phase, although there remains little evidence supporting a strong price bounce-back,” Thielen stated.
Related: Panic selling in Bitcoin costs new investors $100M in just six weeks — Research
Since Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 on February 28 — the first occurrence since November — amid rising macroeconomic worries regarding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, several cryptocurrency analysts have been forecasting further declines for the asset.
On March 10, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, remarked, “It appears Bitcoin may retest $78,000.” “If it fails, $75,000 is next on the agenda,” he added.
Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, a dispatch analyst at the digital asset investment platform Nexo, informed Cointelegraph on March 11 that the low $70,000 range could “establish a foundation for a more sustainable recovery.”
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