In an interview with CNBC’s Street Signs on February 27, Geoffrey Kendrick, the Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, shared his thoughts on Bitcoin’s recent price drop and presented an audacious forecast for the leading cryptocurrency. Despite short-term fluctuations, Kendrick predicts Bitcoin will hit $200,000 this year, potentially reaching $500,000 before President Trump’s term concludes.
Bitcoin Dip? No Worries!
Kendrick began by discussing how political factors shape investor sentiment: “I believe the Trump Administration will have a positive impact in the medium term. Coming into January 20, there was a lot of optimism, which can arguably be seen in the pricing.”
He pointed out the change in regulatory perspective immediately following the inauguration, particularly with the elimination of SAB 121, which he stated had been “hindering financial institutions.” Kendrick also mentioned the absence of a widely expected strategic Bitcoin reserve, which was substituted with a “stockpile” strategy. He commented: “The stockpile is a positive step as it legitimizes both foreign and domestic entities. Several US states are contemplating holding Bitcoin as part of their balance sheets.”
However, the markets are still unsettled by new uncertainties. Kendrick referenced the ongoing trade conflicts and geopolitical tensions: “Recent initiatives have been quite muddled for risk assets… tariffs coming and going. Canada, Mexico, and the EU… while there are some potential gains concerning Ukraine and the Middle East, nothing concrete has emerged, and risk assets dislike uncertainty.”
In the crypto realm, he noted incidents such as the Bybit hack and issues with Solana meme coin scams, describing the environment as “confusing,” which contributes to the downward trend. Kendrick emphasized the snowball effect on Bitcoin.
When asked if Bitcoin is still a true diversifier despite its correlation with equities, Kendrick offered a nuanced perspective: “Certainly, during significant movements like we’ve witnessed in recent weeks, risk assets behave similarly… In the medium term, I believe the diversification narrative holds value… Bitcoin is specifically designed to hedge against risks related to traditional financial systems.”
Kendrick also highlighted the substantial outflows from spot ETFs since Trump’s inauguration: “Just last week, we observed around $3 billion in ETF outflows… Initially, we recorded a net position of about $40 billion in inflows over the first 12 months of these ETFs in the US… yet recently, there’s been a reversal with $3 billion in outflows.”
He estimates that those who purchased Bitcoin following the election in November are currently “significantly underwater,” facing approximately $2 billion in unrealized losses. This new group of investors, alongside sustained retail engagement in the sector, has intensified volatility: “The current climate makes it challenging for investors to weather losses… substantial price swings often lead to panic selling.”
$200,000 Goal Remains Valid
Kendrick reiterated the importance of increased institutional involvement—citing firms like Standard Chartered and investment powerhouses like BlackRock—to enhance custody solutions and diminish the frequency of hacks like the Bybit incident, which result in negative headlines:
“As the sector matures and becomes more institutionalized, it should enhance security… with any luck, we will see some regulatory clarity in the US… this should contribute to the upside potential for Bitcoin, which I see reaching $200,000 this year and possibly $500,000 before Trump leaves office.”
Looking forward, Kendrick emphasized that clearer regulations—especially surrounding stablecoin guidelines and KYC—could spark a significant influx of institutional and even sovereign capital. He identified long-term public pension and sovereign wealth funds as critical players, pointing to the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund’s acquisition of 4,700 BTC-equivalent shares in the BlackRock ETF by the end of 2024:
“There’s a long-term sector that is yet to participate fully… Also, the only known sovereign to have invested in ETFs is the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund… I anticipate more activity from this front in the coming year.”
As of the latest update, BTC is trading at $81,428.
Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
