Bitcoin BTCUSD is testing the patience of traders as a new week begins — will anything propel 
BTCUSD out of its sub-$100,000 zone?
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The price stagnation of BTC is making market players increasingly uneasy as the focus shifts to a potential short squeeze.
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With the Fed minutes imminent, markets are not inclined to wager on any immediate improvements in the US inflation scenario.
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Exchange activity suggests an emerging “bearish phase” for BTC price movements, which seems to be just beginning.
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Despite the bull market taking a month-long pause, BTC demand continues to reflect a positive investor sentiment.
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Increasing unrealized profits bolster the notion that a peak in the Bitcoin bull market may not be far off.
Liquidity enhances short squeeze prospects
Bitcoin traders are seeking more action before committing to a directional bet this week amid a stubborn trading range.
Since hitting all-time highs in mid-January, BTCUSD has remained stuck in the middle of its three-month trading band, failing to establish $100,000 as a reliable support level, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Over time, doubts about the sustainability of the range floor at $90,000 are becoming more pronounced.
“Should we dip to the range lows ($91k), I think it’s likely we could see a drop to around $88k. Hence, I would be cautious about longing the range lows recklessly,” remarked popular trader CrypNuevo in a thread on X on Feb. 16.
“Many traders might have placed their long limit orders with stop-loss (SL) just below, so a deviation could be possible.”
CrypNuevo utilized exchange liquidation data from crypto trading platform Hyblock Capital to highlight two critical short-term price magnets moving ahead.
“Given that we are at the discount area of the range, very near the lows, I’m looking for long opportunities,” he shared with his followers.
“I anticipate that the upside liquidations will likely activate soon ($99.2k), but I would prefer to re-enter at the lower liquidations ($93.3k) first.”
Trader TheKingfisher, who focuses on liquidation analysis, suggested that a short squeeze is the most probable upcoming event on shorter timeframes, as Bitcoin dipped below $96,000 after the weekly opening.
“$BTC liquidity is currently concentrated above within this consolidation,” Mikybull Crypto concurred while reviewing separate liquidation data from the monitoring tool CoinGlass.
Trader CJ has set a near-term target of $102,000 as a ceiling for BTC prices.
“With the weekly draw at 102.5k, we have an imbalance and fresh supply zone above it, so we could spike up to 105k. Thus, 102.5k – 105k is my higher timeframe boundary,” he noted in an X post regarding the upcoming week.
“I believe this area will restrict price, at least for the time being. If we flip it, I’ll be aiming for $125k upside. However, I suspect we may see a final dip into the 80s before making progress again. But it’s uncertain — level to level, and we will let the market determine.”
Fed minutes expected as US jobless claims rise
A brief trading week on Wall Street due to the President’s Day holiday on Feb. 17 sees jobless claims leading the macroeconomic report lineup.
Due on Feb. 20, these will follow the release of the minutes from the January Federal Reserve meeting, where officials voted to hold off on interest rate cuts.
Inflation has proven more stubborn than anticipated over the last month, prompting markets to adjust expectations for further rate cuts this year.
Latest figures from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool show only a 2.5% probability of even a minimal 0.25% cut at the next Fed meeting in March.
With the minutes expected to reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, upcoming days will also feature several senior officials making public appearances.
“It’s a short but eventful week ahead,” summarized trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on X regarding the week’s forecast.
Kobeissi observed that risk asset markets remain near record highs, despite rising inflation indicators and a trend towards higher unemployment.
“Jobless claims in Washington DC are up +55% in the last six weeks, surpassing 2008 levels without considerably impacting this chart,” it cautioned while reviewing separate statistics.
“How severe could this become?”
Is Bitcoin entering a “bearish phase”?
Bitcoin exchange flows are raising eyebrows this week as a long-term BTC price indicator turns negative.
The Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which tracks BTC transfers between spot and derivative exchanges, indicates that a “bearish phase” for price action has only just commenced.
According to J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, a downward trend in the IFP typically marks the onset of price declines.
“When a significant volume of Bitcoin is sent to derivative exchanges, it signals a bullish phase, indicating traders are storing coins to establish long positions in the derivatives market,” he elaborated in a “Quicktake” blog post on Feb. 15.
“Conversely, when Bitcoin flows out of derivative exchanges and into spot exchanges, it signifies the start of a bearish period, often occurring when long positions are liquidated, and large investors (whales) lower their risk exposure.”
An accompanying chart shows that past BTC price peaks have always been preceded by new all-time highs in IFP readings — a trend not observed in the current context.
“At present, the indicator has flipped to bearish, indicating a decline in market risk appetite and potentially marking the beginning of a bearish phase,” Maartunn concluded.
As reported by Cointelegraph, analysts are keeping a close watch on whales as potential support sources moving forward.
Demand strengthens Bitcoin bull narrative
Other findings from CryptoQuant, however, suggest a more hopeful outlook regarding the overall demand for BTC at current value levels.
In another Quicktake post on Feb. 17, contributor Darkfost stated that demand “remains robust” despite the stagnant BTC price trend over the last month.
He believes that this can be attributed to the inflow-to-outflow ratio on exchanges, particularly its 30-day moving average (DMA).
“Despite Bitcoin trading within a broad range between $90,000 and $105,000, there is clear evidence of ongoing accumulation, as indicated by the 30DM exchange inflow/outflow ratio,” he noted.
Currently, this metric indicates that Bitcoin is experiencing its first “high demand” period, according to the 30 DMA, since the end of the crypto bear market in late 2022.
“Historically, when this ratio falls into what can be deemed a high-demand zone, Bitcoin has typically experienced short-term upward movements,” Darkfost continued.
“Nonetheless, it’s crucial to consider that some of these outflows may be due to routine asset transfers by centralized exchanges to custodial wallets (ETFs, Institutions, OTC Desks).”
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on whale dominance in exchange inflows nearing multi-year highs — which, if it were to change, would support the argument for continued bull market conditions.
Flirting with profit “euphoria”
Regarding the timing of Bitcoin price cycle peaks, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric for long-term holders (LTHs) has been particularly significant — and 2025 is no exception so far.
NUPL tracks unrealized gains and losses among Bitcoin investors and has spent a month in the “top” territory.
LTH investors, who hold coins for a minimum of six months, have been increasing their distribution to the market in recent months.
The rationale is clear as NUPL remained above the critical threshold of 0.75 throughout January and is now just slightly below that.
According to on-chain analytics company Glassnode, prolonged periods above 0.75 correspond to bitcoin investor “euphoria” — a crucial factor marking macro price peaks.
“In previous cycles, instances of euphoria lasted 450 → 385 → 228 days, while the average NUPL decreased from 0.91 → 0.89 → 0.85,” they informed followers on X on Feb. 14.
“This trend remains worthy of observation.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision involves risk, and readers should perform their own research before making any decisions.
