Bitcoin is currently trading just under the vital $90,000 threshold, facing challenges in regaining bullish momentum after weeks of indecision. The market sentiment has slightly shifted — from extreme fear to cautious monitoring — but overall confidence remains tenuous. Analysts are divided on future movements. Some caution that a failure to reclaim $90K could prolong the existing downtrend, while others posit that a breakout above this level might trigger a sharp upward move.
Compounding this uncertainty, on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is experiencing its seventh compression of Realized Volatility on the daily timeframe within this cycle. Periods of low volatility often herald significant price movements. The Garman-Klass Realized Volatility metric, which assesses intraday volatility, is currently signaling a warning, suggesting that Bitcoin could be on the brink of a major breakout — in either direction.
Historically, four out of the last six volatility compressions in this cycle have led to notable price increases, while two resulted in declines. As Bitcoin fluctuates near a significant resistance level, this volatility squeeze might serve as a pressure release — paving the way for Bitcoin’s next significant move. Traders are closely monitoring for confirmation.
Bitcoin Momentum Slows as Volatility Indicators Raise Caution
Bitcoin remains stable above the $85,000 level, exhibiting resilience after weeks of volatility. However, upward momentum has begun to wane, and the price has struggled to ascend higher despite several attempts. The bulls are finding it challenging to reclaim the $90,000 mark, while the bears are increasingly probing the strength of the $85K support zone. A definitive break below this level could validate a deeper retracement and open the avenue for further declines.
Analysts are still split on future movements. Some warn that if Bitcoin cannot reclaim $90K soon, the market may enter a more drawn-out correction period. Others express optimism, highlighting the potential for a breakout if the bulls can regain dominance and convert resistance into support.
Adding to the uncertainty, top analyst Axel Adler shared an important on-chain insight on X. According to Adler, the Bitcoin market is currently facing its seventh Realized Volatility compression on the daily timeframe. The Garman-Klass Realized Volatility metric — which monitors intraday price variations — is raising an alert, indicating that an important price movement is likely nearing.
Historically, these volatility compressions have often preceded major price shifts. In four out of six previous occurrences, Bitcoin saw a significant rally following the compression, while the other two resulted in downturns. With Bitcoin hovering close to a critical level, this volatility squeeze may act as a springboard for the next significant move — whether up or down. As tension mounts, traders are paying close attention for confirmation signals that will clarify the market’s trajectory.
Price Movement Insights: Essential Levels to Monitor
Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,000 after several days oscillating between $84,000 and $88,000. The price movement has remained relatively steady, but bulls are quickly running out of time to regain control. To affirm the initiation of a new uptrend, BTC needs to decisively surpass the $90,000 level — an important psychological and technical resistance area.
Currently, both the 4-hour 200-day moving average (MA) and the exponential moving average (EMA) are providing short-term support, assisting Bitcoin in maintaining its position above the $86K-$87K range. These levels are crucial for sustaining momentum and preventing a breakdown in the market structure.
However, if the bulls fail to maintain this support and drop below the $85K level, bearish pressure could escalate. A fall beneath $84K would invalidate the current range and likely lead BTC to retest the $81,000 mark — a significant area of previous demand.
As price continues to consolidate within a narrow band, the subsequent breakout — or breakdown — is likely to dictate market sentiment for the ensuing weeks. Until then, the bulls must act swiftly to regain the $90K threshold and shift sentiment back in their favor before the market turns against them.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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