Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience amid economic turbulence, with its value rising nearly 7% in the last week to approximately $84,000, even briefly reaching $86,000. This surge occurs while key U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have fallen to year-long lows, and bond yields have surged to levels not seen since 2007.
Crypto trading firm Wintermute observed that Bitcoin “retained its strength… returning to price levels reminiscent of the U.S. election period.” Historically, during downturns, Bitcoin experienced sharper declines compared to traditional financial assets. “This represents a significant departure from its past behavior in crisis scenarios,” the firm noted. Wintermute attributed this trend to an increasing presence of institutional investors and a shift in sentiment towards Bitcoin among investors.
Recent statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the Consumer Price Index rose by 2.4% year-over-year in March while showing a 0.1% decline month-over-month—marking the first monthly drop since May 2020. The Producer Price Index also decelerated, climbing 2.7% in March compared to a 3.2% rise in February. Wintermute highlighted that, “Despite this progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, the recent escalation in global trade tensions has introduced new potential inflationary threats that are not yet evident in March’s figures.”
As reported by Bitwise, corporate interest in Bitcoin is on the upswing. In the first quarter of 2025, 12 new publicly traded companies incorporated Bitcoin into their balance sheets, bringing total corporate holdings to 688,000 BTC—a 16% increase valued at approximately $57 billion. Analysts speculate that this trend is affecting Bitcoin’s response to macroeconomic developments.
Jeff Park, an analyst with Bitwise, mentioned that recent U.S. trade policies are expected to induce short-term financial volatility. “The costs of tariffs, likely translating to higher inflation, will be borne by both the U.S. and its trading partners, but the relative burden will be much more significant for foreign entities,” he explained. Park believes these conditions might lead to greater Bitcoin adoption.
Kalshi prediction markets currently estimate a 61% likelihood of a U.S. recession this year, while JPMorgan analysts approximate it at 60%. Increasing tariffs and geopolitical tensions could affect inflation, economic growth, and investor risk appetite moving forward.
Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research, expressed doubt about the sustainability of the current trend. “As the trade war escalates, Bitcoin may once again be regarded as a risky asset. Investors will likely seek refuge in gold,” he stated. He attributed the recent price stability to ETF involvement and the growing perception of Bitcoin as “digital gold.”
