Bitcoin Stalls Below $85K: Essential BTC Price Levels to Monitor Before FOMC Meeting

On March 17, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price attempted but failed to break above the resistance level of $85,000. Since March 12, the daily candle highs for BTC have fluctuated between $84,000 and $85,200, yet it hasn’t managed to close above $84,600.

Currently, Bitcoin occupies a state of “no man’s land” on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour chart. This term refers to a price range in trading that is marked by uncertainty, significant risk, and dynamic tension due to external factors and conflicting market sentiment.

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches on March 18-19, traders might witness considerable price fluctuations targeting key BTC levels in the coming days. A major announcement regarding interest rates is expected on March 19 at 2 p.m. ET.

99% Probability That Interest Rates Will Stay the Same

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 99% probability that the interest rates will remain in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, leaving only a 1% chance of a 0.25% rate cut.

Nonetheless, a prevailing belief in the market suggests that any resulting bearish price movement from unchanged interest rates is already factored in.

Related: Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?

The market’s focus now shifts to Jerome Powell, the chair of the US Federal Reserve, and his speech during the FOMC announcements. Given recent data, it’s likely Powell will adopt a hawkish tone based on the following observations:

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 2.8%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index sits between 2.5% and 2.6%. While CPI was lower than anticipated last week, it doesn’t suggest immediate rate cuts.

• Unemployment remains low at 4.1%, with Q4 2024 showing a GDP growth of 2.3%, indicating that the economy doesn’t require immediate stimulus.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has indicated a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will conclude quantitative tightening (QT) by April 30, which could enhance the likelihood of a rate cut as early as this summer.

Critical Bitcoin Price Levels to Monitor

To aim for higher targets around $90,000, Bitcoin must convert the $85,000 resistance level into support.

For this to happen, BTC/USD needs to reclaim its position above the 200-day exponential moving average (orange line) on the 1-day chart. BTC dropped below this EMA on March 9, marking the first time since August 2024.

A potential positive catalyst for the bulls could emerge from renewed interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs. On March 17, Bitcoin ETFs experienced $274 million in inflows, the largest amount since February 4.

Conversely, bears will strive to maintain the $85,000 resistance, increasing the chance of falling below $78,000. The immediate target beneath previous range lows is $74,000, which corresponds to the early 2024 all-time high.

Should the price fall below $74,000, the next critical range of interest is between $70,530 and $66,810, where a daily order block exists. A drop to $69,272 would retest the price from US election day, negating all gains from the “Trump pump.”

SuperBitcoinBro, an unnamed BTC analyst, notes that the “worst case” scenario for Bitcoin is between $71,300 and $73,800, marking potential support across all time frames from daily to quarterly.

Moreover, Nebraskangooner, another well-known Bitcoin analyst, emphasizes that the FOMC represents a wildcard, indicating that BTC needs to reclaim $86,250 to validate the bullish scenario on the lower time frame.

Related: ‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,’ CryptoQuant CEO warns, citing on-chain metrics

However, as reflected in the charts, he anticipates a potential retest near the $70,000 level in the upcoming weeks.

This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move entails risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.