Bitcoin is consistently trading above the $85,000 threshold, though upward momentum is somewhat constrained as the $88,000 to $91,000 liquidity zone poses a significant resistance. This range, which previously supported trading activity, has transformed into a crucial barrier that buyers have yet to overcome. Until a clear breakout is achieved, Bitcoin is expected to remain within a tight range, facing challenges from both technical analysis and broader economic pressures.
Concerns over trade wars and escalating global economic tensions continue to affect investor sentiment, leading to heightened volatility in financial markets. These macroeconomic uncertainties are instrumental in influencing short-term price fluctuations, keeping traders cautious despite indicators of underlying strength.
Data from CryptoQuant highlights a significant change in supply dynamics. In the past five months, supply from major Bitcoin holders—known as whales—has notably decreased, with a total cut of 290,000 BTC. This decline suggests a period of steady distribution, although recent metrics indicate that selling activity may be tapering off.
Whale Activity Indicates a Market Shift
Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture, with buyers striving to push past the $88,000 mark to ignite a new rally. After regaining support at $85,000, momentum has begun to build, but a definitive breakout remains out of reach. The $88,000 level is a significant technical hurdle, and surpassing it could pave the way for revisiting the vital $90,000-$91,000 liquidity area. Nevertheless, overall market caution prevails as wider macroeconomic instability affects investor sentiment.
Persisting fears regarding trade wars and erratic policy decisions continue to unsettle global markets, leaving risk assets like Bitcoin vulnerable to abrupt sentiment shifts. Amid these uncertainties, traders are meticulously monitoring on-chain metrics for indicators of deeper structural changes within the market.
Leading analyst Axel Adler shared new insights on X, explaining that over the past five months, supply from significant players—particularly those holding more than 1,000 BTC—has diminished by 290,000 BTC. This drawdown indicates sustained selling over several months. However, Adler observes that average figures are beginning to climb again, signaling a gradual but evident shift towards accumulation. In simpler terms, whales have ceased their selling activities.
This shift in behavior among substantial holders could offer foundational support for a future rally. While the overall macro environment remains unpredictable, the change in whale activity suggests renewed confidence and a potential shift from distribution back to accumulation—an essential signal as Bitcoin nears one of the most critical resistance zones in this cycle.
Bitcoin Maintains Key Support but Faces Pressure Below $90K
Currently, Bitcoin is positioned above both the 200-day moving average (MA) and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which converge around the $85,500 mark. This area has served as a significant support level recently, and traders need to maintain it to avert a deeper decline into lower demand regions. For the moment, this level holds—yet technical support alone won’t be sufficient to alter momentum.
While sustaining the 200-day averages is a positive indicator, it risks becoming irrelevant if Bitcoin is unable to reclaim the $90,000 level. This price point remains the most critical resistance to monitor, acting as both a key liquidity area and a psychological barrier. Without a decisive breakout over $90K, the current rebound risks losing momentum.
If Bitcoin continues to hover below $90K in the upcoming days, bearish pressure is likely to intensify, raising the likelihood of a drop below $81,000. Such a decline would represent a significant breakdown and could trigger more aggressive selling throughout the market. As BTC operates within a tight and tense range, bulls are pressed for time. Achieving a move above $90K is vital to validate the existing market structure and confirm the beginning of a new upward trend.
Main image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
Editorial Process for bitcoinist focuses on providing well-researched, accurate, and impartial content. We adhere to stringent sourcing standards, with each page undergoing thorough review by our team of top technology professionals and experienced editors. This ensures the integrity, relevance, and value of our content for our readership.
