Following a significant 30% decline that saw prices dip below $75,000, Bitcoin is exhibiting renewed strength. The broader cryptocurrency market mirrored BTC’s sharp recovery after a crucial macro development: US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day halt on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which now faces a 145% tariff. This reduction in trade war anxieties has provided a much-needed boost to risk assets.
Amid the fluctuations, Bitcoin’s durability is drawing interest. Insights from CryptoQuant suggest that whales—large holders apart from exchanges and mining pools—are maintaining their positions. In fact, the current on-chain metrics indicate accumulation activity akin to what was seen during the sideways market phase between August and September 2023. Historically, this trend reflects long-term confidence and often precedes significant price rallies.
While the short-term outlook remains uncertain, the ongoing whale accumulation reinforces the notion that this pullback is part of a larger bullish trend rather than a fundamental collapse. With price stabilization and gradually improving sentiment, Bitcoin now faces a pivotal challenge in reclaiming higher price levels to possibly reestablish its upward momentum.
Bitcoin Shows Resilience as Significant Accumulation Indicates Bull Cycle Remains
Bitcoin has regained its footing above the $80,000 mark, and numerous analysts believe that the most severe phase of the correction has passed. Nonetheless, global uncertainties—particularly those linked to rising U.S. tariffs—continue to weigh on financial markets amid increasing fears of a potential global recession. In spite of this challenging context, Bitcoin has demonstrated tenacity and is nearing an important daily resistance level at around $88,700.
The recent announcement of a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for all nations except China, which is still contending with a 145% tariff, has lent some immediate support. However, a sustainable recovery hinges on whether the US and China can broker a broader agreement.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights an intriguing trend: Bitcoin whales seem to be holding tight. These holders, excluding exchanges and mining pools, offer a clearer perspective on actual trading behaviors and accumulation trends. Their activities have historically tracked closely with price movements.
During the peak of the cycle last year, whale exits were characterized by a consistent tendency toward profit-taking. However, this time, they are active in accumulating, reflecting patterns seen in the sideways market of August-September 2023. Unlike the early exits during the 2020 COVID crash, which whales anticipated, they are standing firm in the face of this correction.
This indicates that the current decline is not indicative of a structural crisis but rather a sharp retracement in a broader bullish cycle. Should this engineered crisis resolve, a new influx of liquidity—potentially spurred by quantitative easing from both the Fed and China—could benefit assets like gold and Bitcoin. For the moment, whale conviction provides a positive signal.
BTC Price Approaching Essential Moving Averages
Bitcoin is currently priced at $83,600, just 5% away from the 200-day moving average (MA) around $87,100. This technical threshold is crucial for bulls looking to validate a reversal and reestablish a long-term upward trend. For a convincing bullish case, BTC must not only maintain its stance above the $81,000 support area but also reclaim the $85,000 level, which closely aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Reclaiming these moving averages would indicate a potential trend shift, enhancing short-term momentum and restoring market confidence. While recent price action has shown strength, technical validation through these averages is essential before any genuine breakout occurs.
However, risks to the downside still exist. If Bitcoin fails to sustain the $81,000 to $80,000 range, selling pressure may intensify rapidly. A drop below this threshold could lead to a retest of the $75,000 level, where demand may be reassessed.
Given the persistent macroeconomic pressures on investor sentiment, BTC finds itself at a crucial turning point. The upcoming days will reveal whether bulls can establish dominance or if another corrective phase is imminent.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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