Recent on-chain data indicates that short-term Bitcoin holders have been selling their assets at significant losses, a phenomenon that has historically signaled market bottoms.
Plunge in SOPR for Bitcoin Short-Term Holders
The latest weekly report from the on-chain analytics company Glassnode highlights the reactions of Bitcoin short-term holders amidst the recent market decline. Short-term holders (STHs) refer to those investors who acquired their Bitcoin within the past 155 days, often including newer market entrants who may lack confidence and react quickly to market volatility.
“Understanding this group’s behavior enables market observers to identify periods of extreme selling exhaustion, which have frequently provided opportunities for long-term investors,” Glassnode notes.
Recent sharp fluctuations in cryptocurrency prices have likely compelled these investors to sell off their holdings. The nature of this sell-off—whether it results in profit-taking or realizing losses—can be assessed using the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR) indicator.
This indicator analyzes the transaction history of tokens sold by STHs, comparing their sale price to the initial purchase price. If the prior purchase price is lower than the current market price, the transaction is categorized as profit. Conversely, transactions indicating losses are categorized in the opposite manner.
An SOPR value above 1 indicates that the STHs are realizing more profits than losses. Conversely, a value below 1 suggests that losses dominate among this group of sellers.
Below is a chart provided by the analytics firm that displays the trend in the 196-hour moving average (MA) for the Bitcoin STH SOPR over the past couple of years:
The metric has recently fallen below the 1 mark | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 10, 2025
As illustrated in the chart above, the Bitcoin STH SOPR has dipped below 1, indicating that these recent buyers are beginning to sell at a loss. During the height of this sell-off, the metric dropped to 0.97, nearing the low recorded during the capitulation in August.
“This continual downward momentum has left new investors anxious, resulting in widespread panic selling at a loss,” the report states. “Such circumstances often signal impending local seller exhaustion, a phenomenon that long-term investors might watch for possible re-entry points.”
The reason STH capitulation often assists Bitcoin in reaching a bottom is that these coins typically transition to more steadfast holders during such an event. These holders have purchased at lower post-crash prices, making it easier for them to endure any further price declines.
It remains to be seen if the losses experienced by STHs thus far will be sufficient for Bitcoin to find a bottom.
Current BTC Price
Bitcoin has been steadily climbing since the beginning of the week, but with its current price at $83,200, it has yet to fully recuperate from the decline.
The coin's price has seen a rebound over the past few days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
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