Following consecutive drawdowns of 17.39% and 2.3% in February and March, Bitcoin’s (BTC) Q2 is off to a promising start, achieving a return of 3.77% in April. Despite hitting fresh yearly lows at $74,500, BTC is now inching closer to $90,000 than its recent range bottom.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin’s higher time frame (HTF) market structure has recorded its first breakout of 2025, boosting bullish sentiment for potential upward momentum. However, certain factors may limit BTC’s gains over the next two weeks, likely capping its price near $90,000.
Related: Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price ‘seasonality?’
Bitcoin requires spot volume, rather than just leverage-driven
Cointelegraph observed a cooldown period in the futures market as the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio fell by 50%. While de-leveraging in the futures market is a positive sign for the long run, derivatives traders have gained control during this time as well.
Bitcoin cumulative net take volume. Source: X.com
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin’s cumulative net taker volume surged to $800 million on April 11, indicating a rise in aggressive buying. The BTC price also climbed from $78,000 to $85,000 within three days, affirming earlier historical trends where a spike in net take volume leads to price rallies.
Similarly, Maartunn, a community analyst at CryptoQuant, affirmed that the current rally is primarily a “leverage-driven pump,” highlighting the reduced relevance of retail or spot traders at this time.
Bitcoin 30-day apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant
The chart shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand is recovering, but it hasn’t turned net positive yet. Historically, 30-day apparent demand can remain stagnant for extended periods after BTC reaches a local bottom, resulting in sideways movement for the cryptocurrency.
Consequently, it seems unlikely that Bitcoin will breach $90,000 on its first attempt after a near 20% drop unless there’s a combined buying pressure from both spot and futures markets.
Major liquidation clusters between $80-$90K may attract traders
With futures traders positioned on both sides, data from CoinGlass revealed substantial cumulative long and short liquidation leverage between $80,000 and $90,000. If BTC’s price touches $90,035, a total of $6.5 billion in cumulative short positions could be liquidated, using $85,100 as the base price.
Bitcoin exchange liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass
Conversely, if BTC falls to $80,071, $4.86 billion in long orders would be liquidated. While liquidation clusters do not dictate price direction, they can create conditions for long or short squeezes, enticing traders from both sides of the market.
With such significant capital at stake below $90,000, it’s plausible that Bitcoin may target each liquidation cluster before choosing a dominant direction.
Related: Bitcoin traders eye $90K as apparent tariff exemptions alleviate US Treasury yields
This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading activities carry risk, and readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making any decisions.
