- Bitcoin’s price has been stabilizing in the range of $94,000 to $100,000 for nearly two weeks now.
- A report from Bitfinex indicates that BTC is increasingly macro-correlated, reflecting its growing maturity as a risk asset.
- According to QCP’s report, the crypto options market remains passive, awaiting substantive policy developments instead of mere pro-crypto statements.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading within the $94,000 to $100,000 range for almost two weeks, with Bitfinex’s reports showcasing its enhanced macro-correlation and maturity as a risk asset. Additionally, a report from QCP Capital reveals that the crypto options market is currently inactive, waiting for solid policy changes rather than just favorable rhetoric for cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s volatility at historic lows – Bitfinex report reveals a directionless market
The price of Bitcoin continues to hover between $94,000 and $100,000, with current trading around $95,000 as of Tuesday.
“With volatility at historic lows, market sentiment remains unsteady, influenced by geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties,” states Bitfinex’s ‘Alpha’ report published on Monday.
The report notes that Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP)—a key market sentiment indicator—turned bearish for the first time since June 2024, indicating potential downside risk. This indicator monitors BTC flows between derivatives and spot wallets, signaling a decreased risk appetite that often results in market corrections.
Bitcoin IFP chart. Source: CryptoQuant
At the same time, realized losses have surged during recent tests of range lows, echoing previous capitulation phases in the ongoing bull cycle.
In an exclusive conversation with Bitfinex, analysts mentioned to FXStreet, “The relative stability in Bitcoin suggests a growing distinction between the leading crypto asset and the broader digital asset market.”
The analysts elaborated that this trend signals a shift in investor attention, with funds flowing into Bitcoin rather than other cryptocurrencies. It indicates the start of a new market phase where altcoins undergo varied cycles, while BTC shows increased macro-correlation and maturity as a risk asset.
Options traders remain cautious, awaiting regulatory changes
QCP’s capital report on Monday points out that BTC is now comfortably positioned in the middle of its trading range, with implied volatility continuing to decrease. This drop is no surprise as the 7-day realized volatility has fallen to 36v. The lack of significant crypto-specific catalysts means that price movement seems to be more reliant on macroeconomic factors, particularly given the sustained correlation between BTC and equity markets.
The report also highlights that, despite various macroeconomic uncertainties (like tariffs and inflation) and the unpredictability stemming from U.S. President Trump’s administration, both crypto implied volatility and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) are trading at historically low levels. BTC has appeared largely indifferent to recent macroeconomic data, and Open Interest (OI) has not experienced a substantial recovery since the January month-end expiry. This indicates that the crypto options market is remaining inactive, waiting for concrete policy actions rather than just supportive statements for the crypto sector.
“The market seems undecided about investing in decay, even with volatility at these levels—a situation reminiscent of last year’s Q2-Q3 when BTC struggled to break out of its prolonged range. Consequently, most trading activity has leaned towards short-dated volatility selling or range trading rather than preparing for a significant breakout,” noted a QCP analyst.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC could dip toward $90,000
Bitcoin’s price fell below the $100,000 support threshold on February 4 and has since been consolidating between $94,000 and $100,000. Currently, BTC appears to be heading towards the lower limit of this range.
Should BTC close below the $94,000 lower boundary, it may trigger a further decline towards the psychologically significant level of $90,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart currently reflects a level of 41, remaining stable after being hindered at the neutral point of 50 last week, which indicates slight bearish momentum. Moreover, a bearish crossover in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) coupled with red histogram bars suggests potential for further correction.
BTC/USDT daily chart
However, should BTC rebound and break above the upper limit of the $100,000 consolidation range, it could lead to a recovery aimed at retesting the high of $106,012 reached on January 31.
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and is designed to function as a currency. Its decentralized nature means that no single person, group, or entity controls it, eliminating the need for a third party in financial transactions.
Altcoins refer to any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, although some consider Ethereum outside this category due to its relationship with Bitcoin. Litecoin is often cited as the first altcoin, having been forked from Bitcoin’s protocol, and is thus seen as an “improved” version.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, with their worth linked to a reserve asset. Their value is pegged to commodities or financial instruments, such as the US Dollar (USD), with supply controlled by algorithms or market demand. The primary aim of stablecoins is to facilitate trading and investing in cryptocurrencies while providing value stability, as the inherent volatility of other cryptocurrencies can be concerning.
Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin’s market capitalization as a portion of the total cryptocurrency market cap. A high BTC dominance generally occurs before and during a bullish market, as investors flock to stable, high-cap cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Conversely, a decrease in BTC dominance often indicates a transfer of capital towards altcoins in search of higher returns, leading to significant altcoin rally phases.
