By 2030, approximately 25% of companies on the S&P 500 are expected to have made investments in Bitcoin, as treasury managers express concerns over job security if they fail to capitalize on potential Bitcoin opportunities, according to remarks made by a partner at a technology-focused financial advisory firm.
“I foresee that by 2030, about a quarter of the S&P 500 will have Bitcoin listed as a long-term asset in their balance sheets,” stated Elliot Chun, a partner at Architect Partners, in a blog post dated March 28.
Chun noted that this trend will be driven by treasury managers feeling pressured to at least explore Bitcoin (BTC).
“If you experimented and it succeeded, you’re a genius. If you tried and it failed, you at least made an effort. But if you refrained from trying and failed to provide a valid reason, your job might be in jeopardy.”
MSTR is recognized as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin among the 89 publicly traded companies currently including Bitcoin in their financial statements, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
GameStop might soon join this roster following its $1.3 billion convertible notes offering on March 26, which the company plans to use to purchase its initial Bitcoin assets.
As it stands, Tesla and Block are the only two companies on the S&P 500 that currently possess Bitcoin — indicating that at least another 123 companies on the S&P 500 would need to invest in Bitcoin by 2030 for Chun’s forecast to hold true.
The leading 10 corporate Bitcoin holders. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET
Tech investors and executives forecast Bitcoin growth
Prominent figures such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Block CEO Jack Dorsey predict that Bitcoin could reach a valuation between $500,000 and $1,000,000, or potentially even more, by 2030.
Additionally, companies that have adopted Bitcoin treasury strategies are experiencing favorable effects on their stock prices. MSTR’s stock has skyrocketed over 2,000% since its initial Bitcoin investment on August 20, 2020 — greatly surpassing Bitcoin’s gains (781.1%) and the S&P 500’s (64.8%) over the same period.
However, Chun emphasized the distinction between companies that integrate Bitcoin for treasury diversification and risk management, versus those that entirely overhaul their business models to emerge as industry leaders in Bitcoin treasury management.
“Firms attempting to replicate MSTR’s success through this strategy are likely setting themselves up for disappointment,” Chun commented, labeling MSTR as “one-of-a-kind.”
Initially, MSTR granted U.S. asset managers a means to gain exposure to Bitcoin when direct ownership was not an option. That situation changed when the Securities and Exchange Commission approved several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications on January 10, 2024.
Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price rises to a record $3K
Despite the increased openness to Bitcoin adoption, utilizing it as a treasury asset remains an “untested strategy” for firms hoping to use it as a hedge against inflation of the U.S. dollar and fiat currencies or to diversify for risk management, Chun remarked.
Nonetheless, he believes Bitcoin is still a more versatile treasury asset compared to gold, emphasizing the difficulties associated with the storage and transport of gold bars.
In contrast, Bitcoin is a digital commodity recognized under GAAP as a tangible asset with a fungible and liquid nature, he noted.
This month, crypto asset manager Bitwise introduced the Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF on March 11, aimed at tracking companies with a minimum holding of 1,000 Bitcoin in their treasury.
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