In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, it has been noted that short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are opting to hold onto their digital assets despite facing unrealized losses. CryptoQuant contributor Onchained pointed out that these short-term BTC holders are experiencing significantly lower realized losses in comparison to their unrealized losses.
Are Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Anticipating a Price Recovery?
The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, has seen considerable price volatility during the first quarter of 2025. BTC’s value has plummeted from around $97,000 on January 1 to approximately $83,000 at the time of writing, marking a decline of over 15%.
In spite of this downturn, short-term BTC holders are holding on to their coins rather than selling at a loss. Onchained analyzed the Short-Term Holder Net Realized PNL to Exchanges and highlighted a noticeable change in selling tendencies.
The analysis indicates that holders who have owned their BTC for one to three months have been the most active sellers recently, even if it means realizing losses. This behavior is atypical, as investors who have held BTC for less than a week usually show the most reactive selling behavior.
Furthermore, recent statistics reveal a notable drop in selling pressure directed towards cryptocurrency exchanges. This trend indicates that BTC holders who acquired their coins in the prior six months are choosing to retain their investments instead of succumbing to panic selling.
This alteration in selling behavior among short-term holders may carry various implications. A reduction in selling pressure could reflect a shift in investor sentiment, with holders willing to absorb short-term losses in hopes of future long-term profits.
While the analyst warned that this information does not serve as a prediction for future price movements, it does offer valuable insights into market psychology. The analysis states:
Are short-term holders finally holding firm? If so, this could lessen downside volatility and potentially create conditions for stabilization or even a reversal.
Onchained concluded that short-term holders presently account for 28% of BTC’s circulating supply. Should a considerable portion of these holdings transition into long-term holdings, it might pave the way for Bitcoin’s price to soar beyond $150,000.
Is BTC on the Verge of a Comeback?
In tandem with the decrease in short-term BTC selling pressure, other exchange-related metrics hint at the potential for an upcoming price rally for the leading cryptocurrency by market cap.
Recently, crypto entrepreneur and commentator Arthur Hayes suggested that BTC “may have” touched the bottom of this market cycle during its fall to $77,000 on March 10. Nevertheless, Hayes noted that the stock market might still face additional pullbacks.
Although Bitcoin has endured a downturn in recent months, gold has reached multiple new all-time highs (ATHs) amidst ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainties. BTC’s lackluster performance relative to the precious metal is likely to persist, especially with the looming threat of US trade tariffs. As of press time, BTC is trading at $83,953, marking a 2.2% increase over the past 24 hours.
