On February 14, James Fishback, CEO and co-founder of Azoria Partners, shared an ambitious proposal on X. He suggested that American taxpayers receive $5,000 stimulus checks funded by the $2 trillion savings achieved through DOGE. In his post, Fishback directly called out Elon Musk, promoting a tax refund initiative he referred to as the “DOGE Dividend.”
“American taxpayers deserve a ‘DOGE Dividend’: 20% of the money that DOGE saves should be returned to diligent Americans as a tax refund check. It was their money in the first place,” stated Fishback.
“@ElonMusk, let’s make this happen! This is a way to rebuild trust in our government,” he concluded.
Fishback’s post gained momentum, with Elon Musk responding, “Will check with the President.” Although this comment did not confirm the proposal’s viability, it indicated Musk’s openness to exploring it further.
Understanding the DOGE Dividend
To support his proposal, Fishback shared a Google Sheet demonstrating how the “DOGE Dividend” could operate. His analysis included:
- DOGE is expected to generate $2 trillion in savings.
- 20% of these savings ($400 billion) would be returned to around 79 million US households that are net payers of federal income tax for the 2025 calendar year.
- Each eligible household would receive a $5,000 tax refund check, dubbed the “DOGE Dividend.”
The mathematical calculation follows:
- $400 billion in savings · 79 million tax-paying households = $5,000 per household
Trump’s Response to the Proposal
During an investment conference in Miami, President Donald Trump expressed intrigue regarding the concept. He mentioned that his administration was contemplating a plan where 20% of the savings from DOGE’s cost-cutting strategies would be divided among American citizens, while another 20% would be used to reduce the national debt.
Trump on the DOGE Dividend:
“The administration is considering a concept where 20% of the savings from DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts will go to American citizens, with another 20% directed toward national debt reduction.”
He also pointed out that this initiative could encourage citizens to report wasteful government expenditures, effectively engaging them in fiscal oversight: “They’ll be reporting it themselves. They participate in the process of saving us money,” Trump mentioned.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s Perspective
House Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged the political allure of the stimulus but raised concerns regarding fiscal responsibility. Highlighting the $36 trillion federal debt and the current budget deficit, he argued that it might be wiser to invest any savings in debt reduction instead of direct payments.
Johnson’s viewpoint: “While this may be politically advantageous for us—since everyone would receive a check—if we focus on our core principles, fiscal responsibility must guide us as conservatives. We have a $36 trillion federal debt and a significant deficit to manage. We should aim to pay down the credit card, right?”
Eligibility for DOGE Dividends
Fishback’s proposal states that only net federal income tax payers will qualify for the stimulus. This amounts to approximately 79 million American households.
Net income taxpayers are individuals who contribute more in taxes than they receive back. A Pew Research Center study revealed that many Americans with an adjusted gross income under $40,000 effectively pay zero federal income tax, and these households would not be eligible for DOGE dividends.
The entire DOGE dividend strategy hinges entirely on achieving $2 trillion in savings, a colossal undertaking. To date, DOGE has claimed to have saved $55 billion within the first month of operations. However, skepticism arose regarding this figure after an announced $8 billion was actually an $8 million contract.
If the savings do not reach the $2 trillion threshold, there would be insufficient funds to provide each of the 79 million American households with their $5,000 checks.
Regardless, Fishback noted that households would still receive stimulus checks even if the savings fell short of expectations.
“If it’s only $1 trillion, the check would reduce to $2,500. If it’s merely $500 billion… then the payout goes to $1,250. That’s still significant money.”
Will DOGE Dividends Affect Inflation?
James Fishback recognizes concerns that the proposed stimulus checks could lead to inflation and presents two critical arguments.
- Unlike the Covid stimulus checks, DOGE dividends would not be financed through deficit spending, thereby avoiding additional debt.
- The families receiving DOGE dividends are more inclined to save rather than spend, as consumption represents a smaller portion of their income.
He asserts that even if the money is utilized to counter inflation, it would not generate inflationary pressure. “There is nothing inflationary about paying off debt, saving for emergencies, or investing in education or retirement. In fact, debt repayments are typically deflationary,” he articulated.
What Lies Ahead?
Fishback’s proposal has spurred debate, but it remains uncertain if it will gain substantial support. Elon Musk’s response was tentative, and while Trump showed interest, his remarks were exploratory rather than conclusive. Meanwhile, fiscal conservatives like Johnson continue to question the wisdom of distributing savings as direct payments.
