In a recent post on X, which reached his 700,000 followers, market expert CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) detailed what he believes could be one of Bitcoin’s last significant pullbacks before an anticipated rise to a six-figure price point. He stated, “BTC LAST DIPS BEFORE $273K? Here’s why:” To support his assertion, he provided a series of succinct bullet points addressing market trends, technical signals, and historical evaluations.
Last Chance to Buy Bitcoin Cheap?
CRYPTO₿IRB’s analysis opens with an examination of the “Bull Market” conditions, highlighting the upward trends of both the 200-week and 50-week moving averages. These long-term indicators often indicate a shift in overall market sentiment.
He also refers to the latest statistics on Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, noting total assets under management (AUM) at $121 billion, along with a significant trading volume of $746 billion. Another important metric he highlights is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL), which stands at 0.54, signifying that more traders are currently in profit compared to those at a loss. He observes a seven-week correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.25, which shows only a moderate connection between Bitcoin and the traditional equity market during this timeframe.
The analyst discusses the “Daily Trend,” stating that he sees Bitcoin trading in a range between $90,000 and $110,000 for the time being. He identifies the 200-day Simple Moving Average at around $80,200 and stresses that this figure is on an upward trajectory. CRYPTO₿IRB also mentions that his proprietary 200-day BPRO indicator rests at approximately $94,400, which he interprets as another sign of strengthening momentum, despite a 50-day RSI of 42. An RSI below 50 typically indicates a cooling in market momentum, yet he notes that volatility seems to be stagnant for now, with an Average True Range of $3,360 suggesting diminished price fluctuations in comparison to prior periods.
Shifting to his “Trade Setup,” CRYPTO₿IRB points out certain bearish patterns visible on his 12-hour BPRO CTF and HTF Trailer indicators. He describes current market conditions as choppy, with resistance appearing between the $99,700 to $103,100 range. This suggests that if Bitcoin cannot break past this resistance level, it may experience short-term pullbacks or sideways movement until buyers reassert control.
On the topic of “Sentiment & Miners,” the analyst notes a Fear & Greed Index reading of 51, recognized as neutral. He comments that fear often surges just prior to significant breakouts, implying that the lack of extreme fear might promote a more sustained upward movement once resistance levels are surpassed. He characterizes the current market cycle phase as “belief,” indicating that investors remain cautiously optimistic without the euphoria that usually signals significant market peaks. Another critical aspect is miners’ profitability, which he estimates to be healthy above $88,400, a level that can deter excessive selling by miners and fortify price floors.
His remarks on “Seasonality” highlight Bitcoin’s historical performance, noting that the month of February has an average gain of 15.85%, with positive returns occurring in seven out of the last ten years. In general, first quarters tend to display around a 25% average gain. From 2010 to 2024, Bitcoin’s annualized return is approximately 145%, underscoring the remarkable long-term growth it has achieved. CRYPTO₿IRB encourages traders to “BTFD Feb–March,” shorthand for “buy the dip,” suggesting that he anticipates attractive entry points ahead before the market possibly rallies once again.
In discussing the “Macro Top,” he refers to the MVRV Z-Score, a metric that contrasts market value with realized value. He cautions that an MVRV Z-Score exceeding 7.0 typically indicates an overheating market. Presently at 2.43, the score remains firmly below this warning zone, prompting him to predict a potential peak of over $273,000 (2.88x from $95.3k).
He asserts: “Bitcoin will start forming top over $273k+. According to MVRV Z-Score, the market peaked only when MVRV pushed & stayed for weeks above 7.0 (2.8X from $97.5k). It’s the pre-rich phase.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $95,553.
