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Bitcoin is finding it difficult to maintain its position above the $100,000 mark, yet traders are showing growing optimism about a potential increase. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, now estimates the odds of the cryptocurrency hitting $125,000 by the end of June to be 44.4%, marking a notable upward adjustment from earlier predictions.
Bitcoin Could Reach $125,000
Dr. Sean Dawson, director of research at Derive, an on-chain options protocol, released a report on February 13 indicating that the likelihood of Bitcoin achieving $125,000 by June 2025 has risen from 41.9% to 44.4%.
This analysis surfaces as Bitcoin has been trading beneath the critical $100,000 threshold since February 7, following a historic peak of $109,000 on January 20, shortly before Donald Trump’s inauguration.
Concerns about facing downside risks appear to be diminishing, with the probability of falling back to $75,000 reduced to 12.1%, down from 17.8% previously. This perspective diverges from that of Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who previously forecast a potential decline to the $70,000-$75,000 range, a level he believes could spark a “mini-financial crisis.”
A Market in a Consolidation Phase with Optimistic Prospects
The crypto market sentiment index currently registers a “neutral” score of 48 out of 100 as of February 14, indicating a level of caution among investors. Trader Jelle highlights that as long as Bitcoin fails to recapture the $100,000 level, market conditions will likely remain volatile.
Nevertheless, long-term projections remain exceedingly positive. VanEck, a prominent asset manager, upholds its forecast for a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025, paving the way for new record highs. Their analysts predict Bitcoin will reach $180,000 “at the peak of the cycle,” while Ethereum is expected to surpass $6,000.
In spite of a consolidation phase below $100,000, the influx of institutional investors and the success of Bitcoin ETFs indicate a resurgence of bullish momentum. Analysts are optimistic for the months ahead, with some, such as Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, even forecasting a Bitcoin price of $1.5 million by 2030.
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As a Bitcoin enthusiast, I enjoy exploring the intricacies of blockchain and crypto, sharing my findings with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom are guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe Bitcoin is the tool that can make this possible.
DISCLAIMER
The opinions, thoughts, and views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
