The director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, posits that Bitcoin (BTC) has a “potential” trajectory to exceed gold in market capitalization — although he emphasizes that this won’t happen “any time soon.”
In an extensive post on social media, Timmer elucidated his perspective with a chart that illustrates the anticipated growth of both gold and Bitcoin over time.
He observed that if gold maintains its historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% — a trend established since 1970 — and if Bitcoin adheres to either a power law adoption curve or the S-curve model characteristic of the internet, the two assets might converge over the next 10 to 20 years.
Timmer stated:
“If Bitcoin expands at the rates indicated by these two models, then it seems that hard money is likely winning the race, suggesting that gold will appreciate at a rate faster than 8% per year. Therefore, I suspect that gold will always serve as Bitcoin’s quieter, older sibling.”
This prediction displays a more cautious stance compared to those made by other industry figures such as Michael Saylor, the founder of Galaxy and Strategy.
Institutional Momentum
Timmer’s remarks come at a time of notable volatility in the cryptocurrency markets. Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 again on March 28, reflecting roughly a 33% decrease against gold since its peak in December.
These pricing challenges arise amidst ongoing inflation concerns and trade tensions, which are impacting risk assets in a market characterized by subdued sentiment. In contrast, gold continues to achieve new all-time highs, reaffirming its historical role as a safe haven asset.
Despite the decline in Bitcoin’s price, significant institutions are displaying increasing confidence in the asset. On March 27, Fidelity and BlackRock collectively invested $89 million in Bitcoin ETFs, primarily through Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which experienced inflows amounting to $97.1 million.
This ongoing influx of capital indicates a deepening institutional belief in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, even as the current price trends appear more bearish.
Saylor Predicts $500 Trillion Market Cap
While Timmer maintained a measured outlook, Strategy founder Michael Saylor recently delivered a considerably more ambitious prediction.
At the DC Blockchain Summit on March 28, Saylor estimated that Bitcoin’s market cap could skyrocket to $500 trillion as it absorbs value from traditional assets, including gold, real estate, and even sovereign wealth funds.
Saylor contended that Bitcoin is supplanting “20th-century assets” with a digital, decentralized, and inflation-resistant alternative. He drew parallels between this transformation and historical shifts in monetary systems — such as European colonizers introducing coinage to societies that utilized beads or shells.
He further asserted that the U.S. has the potential to capture 25% to 30% of the global Bitcoin value once the “dust settles” from this reorganization of assets.
Nonetheless, the discourse is clearly evolving. As more institutional investments flow in and long-term models predict exponential adoption, the discussion is shifting from whether Bitcoin should be compared to gold, to when and under what circumstances it might achieve parity.
For the time being, Timmer of Fidelity advises a cautious approach, indicating that while the flippening is “possible,” gold — reliable, steady, and time-tested — still maintains the upper hand.
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