Recent weeks have been marked by significant volatility in the bitcoin (BTC) market, characterized by notable price fluctuations. Over the last two weeks, bitcoin has exhibited an open-high, lower-close candlestick pattern, featuring double-digit percentage variances.
During the week starting February 24, bitcoin experienced a downturn, falling to a low of $78,167 before rallying to a high of $96,515—an impressive 23% swing. The following week, commencing March 3, saw a low of $81,444 and a high of $94,415, amounting to a 16% swing.
These significant candlestick configurations are referred to as hammer candles, according to analyst Checkmate, wherein the extended lower or upper wick constitutes 90% of the overall price range, forming a small body with a lengthy wick.
Checkmate’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin has created a weekly hammer candle with a 90% lower wick only five times throughout its history. These events took place during the bullish surge of 2017, at the peak of the late 2021 bull market around $69,000, twice in 2023—following the Silicon Valley Bank crisis and once again after the summer slump—and once in 2024, also during a mid-year lull.
Although the data does not reveal a definitive trend in bitcoin’s cycles, the correction experienced in the 2017 bull market stands out, implying that such formations might indicate crucial turning points in price trajectories.
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