In a recent episode of the Coinstories podcast, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise Asset Management, shared an eye-opening long-term outlook for Bitcoin. In a discussion with host Nathalie Brunell, Hougan articulated his belief that BTC could not only challenge gold but potentially soar to $1 million per coin by 2029. He linked this optimistic forecast to swift institutional adoption, greater regulatory clarity, and enduring demand that outpaces supply.
Reasons Bitcoin Might Reach $1 Million By 2029
During the conversation, Hougan highlighted the significant influence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a key driver of institutional capital flows. He noted that the influx of new investments following the ETF launches in January 2024 exceeded most analysts’ expectations. “Before the Bitcoin ETFs debuted, the top-performing ETF of all time attracted $5 billion in its inaugural year,” he remarked. “These [Bitcoin] ETFs raised thirty-seven billion.”
He went on to emphasize that this impressive inflow trend could persist, largely due to the fact that “fewer than half of all financial advisers in the US can even initiate a proactive conversation” about Bitcoin investments at this time. Once these barriers are removed and more advisers are allowed to endorse Bitcoin, he expects an even more significant surge in assets.
Responding to inquiries about competition among leading ETF providers, Hougan stressed that BlackRock’s involvement ultimately benefits the entire sector by enhancing overall participation. He pointed out how Bitwise centers its efforts on catering to both institutional investors and crypto experts seeking a “crypto native” manager.
Although Bitwise launched its spot Bitcoin ETF alongside several prominent competitors, Hougan views the intense rivalry as advantageous for investors, as it has reduced fees to “rock bottom.” He mentioned that his firm’s management fees are lower than many traditional commodity ETFs, concluding, “It’s a fantastic deal for investors.”
In addition to the significant shifts in institutional finance, Hougan drew attention to the rapid growth of stablecoins. He referred to them as a “killer app,” pointing out the global demand for more affordable, efficient transaction methods, and explaining that stablecoins, which operate on blockchains, can enhance cross-border money transactions.
He predicts that the stablecoin market could reach trillions in value in the coming years, especially if favorable regulatory frameworks emerge. While he acknowledged that U.S. legislation may influence whether stablecoin issuers utilize short or long-term treasuries, he expressed optimism that the market will remain sufficiently free to encourage ongoing competition and innovation.
The discussion also explored increasing corporate interest, which Hougan noted faces challenges such as “strange accounting rules,” but has nonetheless demonstrated durability. He emphasized how corporations “acquired hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin last year” and believes these trailblazers signal a larger trend once accounting and due diligence issues are resolved.
His firm’s private surveys indicate a notable disparity between advisers’ personal enthusiasm for Bitcoin—where “over 50%” already own it—and the 15–20% who can currently allocate it on behalf of clients. He projects that this figure will continue to grow as internal committees grant advisers the go-ahead and as more institutions recognize that “if you have a zero percent allocation to crypto, you’re effectively short.”
Regulatory Changes and the Washington Factor
Throughout the interview, Hougan frequently emphasized that the market may be “underpricing the shifts happening in Washington.” He reminisced about how, until quite recently, banks were reluctant to accept deposits from crypto firms, and how numerous subpoenas, lawsuits, and the threat of “being debanked” dampened industry growth.
Hougan believes that “unless you were involved in crypto over the last four years, you can’t comprehend how difficult it was,” and that the government’s more lenient approach now eliminates a major barrier to capital inflows. He also views bipartisan backing for stablecoin legislation as a promising signal of regulatory clarity on the horizon.
Beyond regulation, Hougan suggested that Bitcoin is well-positioned to thrive in a macroeconomic environment filled with uncertainty. He pointed to either runaway inflation or a sudden deflationary downturn as scenarios that generate fear, asserting that “if you observe the market, it’s more volatile or unpredictable than it has been historically.”
From his standpoint, even a minor allocation to Bitcoin serves as a non-sovereign hedge against potential monetary or fiscal instability. He stated that many of Bitwise’s large clients are exploring methods to generate yields on their Bitcoin—whether through derivatives or institutional lending—allowing them to retain exposure without liquidating the asset. Such interest, he believes, indicates the strong conviction levels characteristic of the crypto community.
In conclusion, Hougan reiterated the compelling case for Bitcoin’s limited supply and growing institutional demand. He articulated that Bitcoin’s finite issuance schedule, combined with new buyers vastly outpacing the generation of new bitcoin, will likely continue to drive prices upward over time. “I believe Bitcoin is on the path to disrupt gold,” he stated. “We expect it to exceed a million dollars by 2029.” While he acknowledged that daily price fluctuations can be significant, he remains confident that the long-term fundamentals are unwavering.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $84,138.
