The on-chain analytics company Glassnode has disclosed potential new support levels for Bitcoin based on various pricing models.
Bitcoin Currently Retesting 1-Year MVRV Z-Score Mean
In a recent update on X, Glassnode discussed Bitcoin’s performance across several pricing models. One of the key models considered is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap with its realized cap while utilizing a standard deviation test to highlight extreme values.
The “realized cap” is defined as an on-chain metric that tracks the total amount of investment that holders, as a group, have put into BTC.
Since the market cap reflects the current value investors are holding, comparing it to their initial investment through the MVRV Z-Score offers insights into the userbase’s profitability.
Here is the model presented by Glassnode, utilizing the mean and two standard deviations (SDs) of the 1-year MVRV Z-Score to outline Bitcoin price levels:
The chart above reveals that the mean of the MVRV Z-Score stands at $96,300. Bitcoin’s spot price has recently fluctuated around this level, indicating that the MVRV Z-Score is aligned with its 1-year mean.
So far, BTC has successfully bounced back above this mean each time it dipped below it recently; however, if this level fails to hold, the cryptocurrency may need to look for support elsewhere.
From the analysis, the next support level indicated by this model is presently at $80,100, which would place the 1-year MVRV Z-Score at -1.5 SD from its mean.
It’s worth noting that this isn’t the only significant on-chain support level for Bitcoin; the second model shared by Glassnode highlights a historically important level that is closer in proximity.
The graph above illustrates the average cost basis (known formally as the realized price) for short-term Bitcoin holders. “Short-term holders” (STHs) are those who acquired BTC within the last 155 days.
The realized price for STHs has frequently served as a crucial support boundary during bullish trends, currently identified at $92,000. Hence, before Bitcoin can retest the lower MVRV Z-Score pricing band, it will first need to approach this significant level.
BTC Price
At present, Bitcoin seems to have dipped below the 1-year MVRV Z-Score mean, trading around $95,400. It remains unclear whether this is merely a brief fluctuation.
