According to onchain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin investors who bought around the cryptocurrency’s all-time high of $109,000 in January are now engaged in panic selling as prices drop, with the possibility of Bitcoin declining to $70,000 not being ruled out.
In a markets report issued on March 11, Glassnode noted that a recent sell-off by major buyers has led to “intense loss realization and a moderate capitulation event.”
Short-term holders exit as Bitcoin values fall
The increase in buyers who paid higher prices for Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months is evident in the short-term holder realized price, which reflects the average purchase price for those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
In October, the short-term realized price stood at $62,000; at the time of this report, it has risen to $91,362, marking a 47% increase over five months, based on data from Bitbo.
As of the current report, Bitcoin is trading at $81,930, according to CoinMarketCap, which results in an unrealized loss of approximately 10.6% for the average short-term holder.
Bitcoin has decreased by 5.90% over the last week. Source: CoinMarketCap
Glassnode emphasized that the realized price for short-term holders indicates a clear trend: “market momentum and capital flows have turned negative, suggesting a drop in demand strength.”
“Investor uncertainty is impacting sentiment and confidence,” it added.
According to Glassnode, short-term holders find themselves “deeply underwater” within the range of $71,300 to $91,900, cautioning that if selling continues, Bitcoin could potentially find a low around $70,000.
“The likelihood of establishing a temporary floor in this area is significant, at least in the short term,” Glassnode mentioned.
Bitcoin short-term holders are “deeply underwater” in the range of $71,300 to $91,900. Source: Glassnode
Market research firm 10x Research characterized it as a “textbook correction” in a note on March 10, pointing out that following Bitcoin’s drop below $80,000, “nearly 70% of all sales originated from investors who purchased within the last three months.”
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On the same day, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin might retest the $78,000 mark and, if that level fails, could decline to $75,000 next.
Glassnode further analyzed that a similar selling pattern was observed in August when Bitcoin dropped from $68,000 to approximately $49,000 amid recession fears, disappointing employment data in the U.S., and slow growth among major tech stocks.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin saw a 7.5% surge over the past 24 hours as the U.S. market stabilized on March 11, after experiencing a significant dip the previous day following U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements that did not rule out a potential recession.
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This article does not offer investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading endeavor carries risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
