Hold Off on Cashing That $5,000 DOGE Check You’ve Heard About!

President Donald Trump and his billionaire advisor Elon Musk have proposed distributing taxpayer checks potentially amounting to $5,000 based on facing federal budget cuts, although the efficiency and implications of this proposal remain uncertain.

Discussion around these checks gained traction this week when a social media user suggested that checks be issued to taxpayers amounting to 20% of the savings from proposed federal spending reductions identified by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency team. DOGE has been engaged in layoffs and has canceled grants and contracts at various federal agencies following the president’s directives for federal spending cuts.

A social media post that initiated this dialogue projected checks at $5,000 per individual if the task force succeeded in achieving $2 trillion in spending cuts. Both Musk and Trump have subsequently expressed their support for this initiative.

In a speech in Miami on Wednesday, Trump indicated he was contemplating distributing the DOGE savings: “20% would go to American citizens, and 20% would go towards debt repayment,” he remarked.

Is DOGE Capable of Making Sufficient Cuts?

However, it remains unclear whether incentives will be provided through checks, their potential value, or the timeline for their release.

Experts have pointed out various significant barriers that could impede the distribution of checks, particularly whether DOGE will be authorized to carry out cuts to federal spending.

The Constitution grants Congress, not the executive branch, the authority to tax and allocate funds, a detail highlighted in multiple lawsuits challenging the legitimacy of DOGE’s measures, including its attempts to close the U.S. Agency for International Development, which is responsible for distributing foreign aid.

Another key issue is how much money DOGE can realistically save in its quest to slash federal spending by focusing on purported “wasteful expenditure across federal agencies,” as outlined in its mission statement.

Early actions by DOGE concentrated on federal contracts and employees, which represent a minor segment of the total federal budget. The agency claims to have saved $55 billion thus far; however, an independent review by NPR confirmed only $2 billion of that figure.

Should 20% of DOGE’s reported savings be allocated to each U.S. adult, the checks would amount to around $41 if DOGE’s figures are accurate or just $1.50 if the unverified savings do not materialize.

How Would the Checks Impact the Economy?

Apart from the ramifications of expenditure cuts, DOGE stimulus checks could influence the broader economy.

Should the agency curtail spending by $2 trillion and distribute $400 billion in checks to citizens, economists at Oxford Economics project it would stimulate economic growth and inflation, likely manifesting in the first quarter of 2026.

The GDP is predicted to expand at an annual rate of 2.9% during that quarter after the issuance of stimulus checks, compared to an expected baseline growth of 2.5%. Concurrently, core inflation could rise by 0.2 percentage points more than projected, according to Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford, who communicated this via email to Investopedia.

However, the White House contends that the checks will not lead to inflationary pressures. During a recent press briefing, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett addressed inquiries regarding the checks’ economic implications.

“If we refrain from government expenditure and return the funds to the people, and they spend the entire amount, it balances out,” he stated. “But they are likely to save a significant portion of it, which would contribute to reducing inflation.”