How Trump’s Tariffs May Affect Bitcoin: Experts Forecast BTC Surge to $150K

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Muntasir Aumio
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How Trump’s Tariffs May Affect Bitcoin: Experts Forecast BTC Surge to 0K

As the
Trump administration readies to announce its tariff strategy on what it
calls “Liberation Day,” financial markets are on high alert, with
cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) particularly affected.

The policy,
set for disclosure later today (Wednesday) at 10 PM CET, is anticipated
to feature reciprocal tariffs aimed at 15 nations—including China,
Canada, and Mexico—that have enacted duties on American goods.

While Wall
Street worries about the economic aftermath, opinions vary among analysts
regarding the implications for Bitcoin, the leading digital asset, which
has already dropped from nearly $110,000 earlier this year to $84,327
this morning, showing a 1% increase over the past 24 hours.

Impacts of
Trump’s Tariffs on Bitcoin’s Price Trends

The
cryptocurrency sphere has been tumultuous during President Trump’s second
term. Initially, investors expected a favorable outcome from his
administration, buoyed by expectations of regulatory changes and the
prospect of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

However, the
actual scenario has proven to be quite the opposite. Throughout much of
March, Bitcoin’s valuation has declined, mirroring general market
nervousness connected to macroeconomic uncertainties, including the
upcoming tariffs.

Bitcoin price today, BTC shows consolidation. Source: Tradingview.com

Other major
digital currencies are experiencing similar trends, with Ethereum (ETH)
currently hovering near its November 2023 low at $1,863, while XRP is
again testing a crucial support level at $2.10.

Tariffs and
Investor Risk Tolerance

The
implementation of tariffs—taxes placed on imported goods—has raised
concerns about a global economic downturn, driving investors away from
assets deemed high-risk, including cryptocurrencies
.

This trend
has strengthened the relationship between crypto markets and conventional
financial assets like stocks and bonds, which are also facing challenges.
Conversely, gold has surged by 18% year-to-date, reinforcing its role as
a sought-after safe-haven asset amidst the turmoil.

Aran Hawker, CEO of CoinPanel.

“Macro-driven
correlations are increasingly influencing price movements in major
cryptocurrencies,” commented Aran Hawker of CoinPanel to Finance Magnates. “The Nasdaq serves as a
leading indicator in the current risk-off trend, offering a useful gauge
for the parallel downturn in the digital assets market.”

Tariffs, including
a suggested 25% tax on foreign vehicles announced last week, form part of
Trump’s broader trade strategy aimed at enhancing domestic industries.

However,
these measures have raised concerns about potential retaliatory actions
from trade partners, which could disrupt global supply chains and
heighten inflationary pressures. Consequently, Bitcoin has faced short-term
selling pressures as traders avoid volatile investments.

A Glimmer of
Hope for Bitcoin?

Despite the
challenges at hand, some experts believe that Trump’s tariff strategy could
ultimately enhance Bitcoin’s long-term attractiveness. Omid Malekan, an
adjunct professor at Columbia Business School, posits that cryptocurrency
might evolve into a viable alternative to traditional safe havens like gold.

Omid Malekan, adjunct professor at Columbia Business School.

“Some
insist that crypto is merely a risk-on tech asset that would sell off due to
tariffs,” Malekan stated in a quote for CoinDesk. “However, Bitcoin is
establishing its footing in certain circles as ‘digital gold,’ while the
physical commodity is rallying on tariff news. So which path will it take?”

This viewpoint
rests on the premise that tariffs could diminish the dominance of the U.S.
dollar in global trade. As trade partners seek alternatives to dollar-based
transactions, non-sovereign assets such as Bitcoin could gain favor.

Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale.

Zach Pandl,
Head of Research at Grayscale, shares this optimism: “Tariffs will
erosion the dollar’s prevailing position and allow room for contenders,
including Bitcoin,” he remarked. “The initial months of the Trump
administration have convinced me of Bitcoin’s long-term potential as a
global monetary asset.”

Pandl estimates
that tariffs have already reduced U.S. economic growth by 2% this year, a
factor that has weighed down crypto markets. However, he anticipates a
possible turning point following today’s announcement.

Is a
Bitcoin Price Decline Ahead?
Liquidity Withdrawals Indicate Possible Price Fluctuations

A recent
upsurge in Bitcoin withdrawals from active trading addresses may set the
scene for potential substantial price movements, according to an analysis by
blockchain

researcher Dr. Kirill Kretov. The study, analyzing over 50 months of
Bitcoin transaction data, uncovers a liquidity reduction pattern similar to
that observed before the bull run of 2020-2021.

Kretov’s
research, extending from July 2020 to March 2025, highlights a significant
surge in large withdrawals commencing in late November 2024. This trend is
predominantly noted among addresses transacting between 100 and 10,000
BTC, indicating the involvement of institutional or high-net-worth
participants.

Analysis of liquidity withdrawals. Source: Kretov.

“Since late
November, we have observed a considerable outflow of BTC from active
addresses, especially those involving over 100 BTC,” Kretov mentioned. “This
high volume indicates substantial participation from institutions or high-net-worth
individuals—not retail investors.”

A negative net
value in the analysis suggests a greater amount of Bitcoin has been sent
than received, indicating significant liquidity withdrawal.

“With so much liquidity
pulled from active participants, the path of least resistance appears to be
upward—mechanically speaking. In a thinner market, even moderately large
buy orders can drastically influence prices,” Kretov added.

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Bitcoin Price
Projection: Potential Surge to $150K

While these
conditions could theoretically facilitate a Bitcoin price of $150,000, Kretov
cautions that such movements in low-liquidity markets may prove unstable.
“It is essential to understand that a price achieved in a low-liquidity
atmosphere is not necessarily stable or structurally underpinned,” he
warned.

The
researcher endorses a careful strategy, especially with regard to margin
trading and leverage. “Personally, rather than aiming for precise price
points, I’m concentrating on trading volatility: capitalizing on price
fluctuations while closely observing liquidity trends,” Kretov stated.

From a
technical analysis perspective, it’s apparent from my review of the BTC/USDT
chart that we have consistently trended within a bearish regression
channel since the all-time high in January. Bitcoin made a brief attempt to
break free from this channel earlier this month, however, the effort fell
short. The psychological support level of $80,000 was tested and breached,
with prices currently moving sideways.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin price. Source: Tradingview.com.

Should Bitcoin
manage to escape the existing supply formation, the primary resistance would
likely be the local peak around $87,000, which shouldn’t present much of an
obstacle. A far more significant resistance lies at $92,000, where the lows
from December, January, and early February converge.

Impact of
Trump’s Tariffs on Bitcoin

At present, the
crypto community is attentively observing the development of Trump’s tariff
strategy. Although the short-term outlook appears murky, the potential of
Bitcoin becoming an alternative against a splintering global financial
system presents a glimmer of hope.

As the
announcement approaches this afternoon, both investors and analysts are preparing
for volatility, but are also hopeful that Bitcoin may stabilize in a
transforming economic environment.

For further cryptocurrency insights and
predictions regarding prominent tokens, visit FinanceMagnates.com.

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