Tony “The Bull” Severino, a prominent crypto analyst, recently utilized the social media platform X to present a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price trends. His examination adopts a cyclical perspective, a view widely acknowledged by both bullish and bearish members of the crypto community as highly significant.
In his analysis, Tony Severino emphasizes the idea of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, illustrating how their troughs and crests have consistently delineated periods of maximum opportunity and risk for Bitcoin investors. This perspective comes in the wake of Bitcoin’s recent price adjustment, which fell below $90,000 in March.
Cycles Define Sentiment: From Troughs Of Opportunity To Crests Of Risk
Severino’s examination is grounded in a foundational belief prevalent throughout the crypto sector: Bitcoin functions in distinctly defined cycles that typically span around four years, closely related to its halving events. His technical viewpoint is founded on Bitcoin’s cycle indicators displayed on the monthly candlestick charts dating back to 2013.
The accompanying chart illustrates that Bitcoin has undergone four distinct cycles throughout its history. As he articulates, these cycles should be interpreted from “trough to trough.” The troughs signify the most challenging times in the market, yet they also represent moments of maximum financial potential.
As these cycles evolve, Bitcoin navigates through phases of rising optimism, ultimately reaching what the analyst refers to as the “cyclical crest.” These crests, marked in red on his chart, represent periods where Bitcoin attains its maximum financial risk. This dynamic is evident in subsequent price actions, as the price of Bitcoin tends to peak shortly after surpassing each cyclical crest.
Bitcoin reached its crest in the current market cycle just prior to hitting its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025. If historical cycles hold any predictive power, the coming months could unveil whether this peak has already been established.
Right-Translated Peaks: Is BTC Running Out Of Time In This Cycle?
Since February, Bitcoin has been on a downward trajectory, currently down 20% from its $108,786 peak. The cryptocurrency has even corrected to as low as $78,780 during the second week of March, prompting speculation regarding whether Bitcoin has already hit its peak for this cycle.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin might not be out of the woods just yet, as not every crest is followed immediately by market tops. Severino notes that previous cycles have showcased “right-translated” peaks, where Bitcoin continued to experience slight gains even after surpassing the crest. The bull run of 2017 was the most pronounced example of a right-translated peak, with strong price action persisting for some time after reaching the red-zone crest. In contrast, other cycles experienced reversals shortly after hitting this point of maximum risk.
Based on Severino’s model, Bitcoin seems to have already surpassed the red crest; however, this does not definitively indicate that a top has been reached. Instead, it suggests that the margin for error is quickly diminishing. The longer BTC continues to correct from this point, the higher the likelihood of entering a bearish phase.
At the time of this writing, BTC is attempting to regain its bullish momentum, trading at $87,300 after a 3.6% increase in the past 24 hours. Numerous analysts contend that the Bitcoin price could still venture into higher territory this year before a conclusive peak is established.
