Historically, iPhone users frequently upgraded their devices. However, as the product evolved and carrier offers shifted, the frequency of upgrades began to lengthen. Recently, this trend appears to be changing once again.
Shorter iPhone upgrade cycle observed for many users
The latest report from CIRP illustrates a notable shift in iPhone upgrade habits during the most recent quarter, which concluded in December 2024.
According to Michael Levin and Josh Lowitz:
A greater number of iPhone purchasers are parting ways with “younger” devices compared to prior quarters. Specifically, 36% of iPhone buyers in the December 2024 quarter indicated they had their previous phone for two years or less, a rise from 31% in the December 2023 quarter.
Conversely, there has been a slight decrease in buyers retaining their phones for three years or more (33%) or for two to three years (30%) in comparison to 2023. The change from 2023 to 2024 was evenly split between these two groups.
For many years, investors and analysts have been concerned with the question: “How frequently are users upgrading to a new iPhone?”
This is a crucial inquiry.
If a significant number of individuals purchase a new iPhone every two years, it generates a substantial impact on sales. Conversely, if users retain their iPhones for three, four, five years or more, it creates a negative impact.
DMN’s Perspective
The data from CIRP suggests that the emergence of Apple Intelligence may influence this trend. Owners of the iPhone 15 (non-Pro) and earlier models have AI features as a compelling reason to upgrade sooner than planned.
This idea is further supported by Tim Cook’s recent comments regarding the iPhone 16’s superior performance over the iPhone 15, with strong sales particularly noted in regions where Apple Intelligence has been introduced.
What factors do you think are driving the changes in iPhone sales trends? Is it Apple Intelligence, or do you think otherwise? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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