The recent decline of Bitcoin (BTC) to $74,000 has led traders to wonder if the cryptocurrency has finally reached its lowest point. Nonetheless, a CMT-certified analyst warns that Bitcoin’s price correction is not yet complete. He anticipates an even steeper drop, forecasting a final price bottom between $38,000 and $42,000.
In an extensive chart analysis based on Elliott Wave theory, CMT-certified technical analyst Tony Severino illustrates a classic 5-wave impulsive structure that likely concluded its last leg around $85,000. Severino’s findings suggest that the recent dip to $74,000 is only the start of a larger ABC corrective pattern, which could ultimately lead the cryptocurrency to a low within the $38,000 to $42,000 range.
New Bitcoin Price Bottom Anticipated
Within Bitcoin’s 5-wave impulsive framework, Wave 1 commenced with a marked bear market low, followed by Wave 2, which represented a corrective pullback. Wave 3 saw the most significant upward movement, divided into five smaller waves (i to v). After a brief market pause during Wave 4, Wave 5 commenced with a final surge toward the peak at around $85,000.
Subsequent to the Wave 5 peak, Bitcoin’s ABC corrective structure initiated, as indicated by the red line on the chart. The analyst asserts that the cryptocurrency is in the process of completing Wave A of this corrective phase, expected to find a bottom in the $62,000 to $65,000 range by June 2025. This anticipated price point aligns with the previous major correction zone corresponding to Wave 4, a common target for Wave A retracements.
Significantly, a larger concern arises following Bitcoin’s potential drop to $65,000 to $62,000. The analyst foresees a brief rebound during Wave B, succeeded by a more substantial decline in Wave C. This downturn is projected to bring Bitcoin’s price to its ultimate bottom target of between $38,000 and $42,000 by April 2026. This forecasted pullback target is consistent with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3, frequently acting as a crucial retracement zone amid market corrections.
Severino has confirmed, through his technical analysis, that the market is currently experiencing a bear phase. His price chart includes cyclical timing models, which depict a complete market cycle characterized by a bull market peak in 2025, followed by a bear market persisting into mid-2026. This timeframe aligns with Bitcoin’s customary four-year halving cycle, wherein the market typically peaks the year following a halving event before transitioning into a bear market phase.
Analyst Highlights Death Cross in BTC’s Chart
As reported by BarChart on X, Bitcoin has recently formed a Death Cross on its price chart for the first time since September 2024. A Death Cross occurs when the 50 Moving Average (MA) crosses below the 200 MA.
This notable chart pattern is often seen as a bearish indicator, suggesting that a downtrend may be forthcoming. With Bitcoin’s price currently at $78,900, the emergence of a Death Cross implies the possibility of further decline and consolidation.
