While AI was anticipated to usher in a supercycle of smartphone growth for both iPhone and Android users, this phenomenon has yet to materialize as evidenced by global smartphone trends for 2024. Although sales are on the rise, they are not following the expected trajectory.
No iPhone Supercycle in Sight; Smartphone Shipments Rebound for Unexpected Reasons
This week, the IDC (International Data Corporation) shared its forecast for global smartphone shipments in the upcoming year.
Overall, the total shipments of smartphones are projected to increase by 6.2%, reversing a trend of decline that has lasted for a couple of years.
- iPhones are showing a modest growth of just 0.4%, indicating no supercycle for them
- Android devices, on the other hand, are experiencing a growth of 7.6%
What is behind this uptick? Are advancements in AI or the rise of foldable phones to blame?
Surprisingly, the answer is no, not really.
While Generative AI continues to be a focal point for numerous vendors, it has yet to significantly influence demand or spur early upgrades.
Regarding foldable devices, IDC points out that they “continue to receive media attention despite their low market volumes.” In the third quarter, “foldable shipments saw a decrease of 7.4%, even with many leading vendors unveiling new models.”
So, what is the main factor driving smartphones’ success in 2024? It turns out to be “low-end devices.”
The impressive 7.6% year-on-year growth in Android is primarily concentrated in regions such as APeJC, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, and China, particularly in the low-end device segment, which is crucial for this year’s 6.2% overall growth.
Indeed, significant technological advancements in generative AI and innovative designs like foldable phones are not the driving forces behind the 2024 smartphone revival. Instead, it’s simply a combination of overdue device upgrades and the demand for low-end options providing the necessary boost to the market.
Will 2025 bring a shift? It’s possible. IDC believes that growth at the higher end may be driven by AI and foldable technology in the coming years. However, as of now, there’s no indication of a major supercycle of upgrades attributed to AI.
What are your thoughts on the smartphone trends of 2024? Do you think an iPhone supercycle is on the horizon? Share your views in the comments!
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