Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal anticipates that Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of entering the next stage of its upward trajectory.
Pal informs his 1.1 million followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin typically aligns with the global liquidity cycle, albeit with a delayed response of approximately 10 weeks.
The macro expert shares a chart indicating that global M2—representing the total money supply worldwide—has experienced a significant upturn after reaching a low point in late 2024. Pal forecasts that Bitcoin will soon conclude its corrective phase and initiate new rallies.
“The waiting game is nearly at an end…the 10-week lead is my go-to metric.”
While Pal believes BTC rallies are on the horizon, he notes that Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), suggests that Bitcoin lags behind the global M2 metric by 12 weeks. Bittel anticipates that Bitcoin will establish a local bottom this week before climbing “higher again.”
Earlier this month, Pal predicted a continuation of rising global M2 while Bitcoin and the broader crypto market undergo a “normal correction.”
“This too shall pass…”
“Crypto is still feeling the effects of tightening liquidity due to a stronger dollar and elevated rates in Q4 2024. This phase is nearing completion, and financial conditions are rapidly improving as M2 moves towards new highs.”
He also forecasted that Bitcoin could reach a market cycle peak of at least $210,000, while also acknowledging that prices could potentially soar to $412,000 or even $805,000.
“Over time, we continuously ascend the logarithmic regression channel. Whether we remain at the mean (red) or surpass it by one or two standard deviations will depend on how the cycle unfolds.”
The logarithmic regression channel is a technical analysis tool designed to aid traders in visualizing long-term price trends on a logarithmic scale.
At the time of writing, BTC is priced at $82,500, reflecting a 2.25% decline over the past 24 hours.
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