According to Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, Bitcoin (BTC) might experience a reversal this weekend after enduring six consecutive weekends of negative returns.
In a research note sent to CryptoSlate on February 14, Kendrick pointed out Bitcoin’s recent trend of poor weekend price performance, noting that every weekend since early January has recorded negative returns.
He linked these downturns to significant market-moving headlines, including volatility associated with DeepSeek-related news in late January and tariff concerns on February 12.
Nevertheless, with macroeconomic conditions improving and US bond yields decreasing, he believes there is an increased likelihood of a positive weekend performance.
“Given we have had the bad news (as below re tariffs) and US 10Y yields are currently down on the week (and very importantly below 4.5%), I think this weekend will be different.”
Market setup indicates potential recovery
Kendrick examined Bitcoin’s performance by day of the week in 2024, observing that Mondays and Fridays have been the strongest trading days.
In contrast, weekend trading sessions have been relatively weak, which may be intensified by lower liquidity and a risk-off sentiment among traders.
He pointed out that a small positive catalyst over the weekend could trigger renewed ETF inflows on Monday, potentially allowing Bitcoin to break out of its current trading range. Kendrick remarked:
“A small positive over the weekend can lead to ETF buying Monday after a week of ETF outflows.”
He also noted that Bitcoin might then test significant psychological price levels at $100,000 and $102,500, referring to it as a “Giffen good after all,” which is an economic concept where demand increases as prices rise.
Despite recent downward trends, Bitcoin has kept an upward trajectory, with gains exceeding 20% year-to-date.
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs
In addition to Bitcoin’s technical analysis, Kendrick discussed larger macroeconomic trends, particularly the repercussions of US inflation data and changing expectations regarding former President Donald Trump’s potential policies.
US Treasury yields fell following a softer-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) report earlier in the week, alongside a weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) reading on February 14.
The 10-year Treasury yield, closely monitored by investors as an indicator of borrowing costs and risk appetite, remained below 4.5%, which Kendrick views as positive for digital assets.
As per the analyst:
“If latest headlines are to be believed, we are past bad Trump from a tariff perspective, with reciprocal tariffs only taking effect April 1.”
He also mentioned that optimism regarding a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement could further influence market sentiment, noting:
“On the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, we may be finally moving from bad Trump to good Trump as far as risk assets are concerned.”
Kendrick reiterated his bullish outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting that if these macroeconomic factors remain favorable, the cryptocurrency could be poised to reach $102,500 in the near future.
Based on CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading at $97,348 as of the time of this report, reflecting a 2% increase over the last 24 hours.
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