Two Key Factors Indicating a Potential Bitcoin Price Surge at Quarter-End

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The cryptocurrency market has stabilized over the last couple of days, with Bitcoin reaching the 200-day simple moving average at $84,000 earlier today. The softer-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday boosted sentiment among traders, affirming their expectations of four interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

In the past 24 hours, the recovery has been primarily driven by the memecoin sector, followed by tokens from layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains, as well as AI tokens, according to data from Velo.

However, ongoing issues, such as President Trump’s tariffs, fears of a recession in the U.S., and bond market volatility that has recently affected risk assets—including BTC—raise concerns regarding the durability of this market recovery. Despite this, at least two factors indicate a more optimistic outlook.

The first factor is quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have experienced declines of 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has risen by 5%. This indicates that funds required to maintain specific asset allocations are currently overweight in bonds and will likely rebalance their portfolios by buying equities and selling bonds as the end of the quarter approaches.

Such actions could lead to higher bond yields and stock prices, which may have positive implications for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, given the strong correlation between BTC and technology stocks.

The second factor is the Japanese yen, which has faced downward pressure since CoinDesk pointed out the potential for renewed stability in the crypto market due to overexposed bullish bets in the Japanese currency. The yen, often considered a safe-haven asset, might continue to face pressure as anticipated quarter-end rebalancing drives U.S. bond yields higher. Essentially, risk-off sentiment stemming from yen strength and the consequent unwinding of yen carry trades may have peaked for now.

Moreover, positive net global liquidity could stimulate risk-taking.

“Net global liquidity is increasing, largely due to China and the U.S.,” said Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment advisor, in a Telegram chat. “This might offset some effects of the yen trade’s unwinding. Additionally, as the U.S. manages its own interest rates and inflation better—something we’ve seen trend down incrementally over recent months—it will alleviate some pressure on bonds from other central banks and slow rate growth on yen borrowing.”

However, traders should remain cautious about volatility. The BTC options market tracked by Deribit, as reported by Amberdata, shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Consequently, dealers are likely to trade in line with market movements to keep their overall exposure neutral, which could lead to increased price fluctuations.

The U.S. is expected to release its February Producer Price Index (PPI) report and weekly jobless claims later today. A hotter-than-expected PPI, which reflects pipeline inflation, might introduce downside volatility in risk assets. Stay vigilant!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • March 13, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases February producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.6% vs. Prev. 3.6%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.4%
    • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.5%
  • March 14, 8:00 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases January producer price inflation data.
    • PPI MoM Prev. 1.48%
    • PPI YoY Prev. 9.42%
  • March 16, 10:00 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases February employment data.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 5.1%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 14: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, $-0.05
  • March 24 (TBC): Galaxy Digital Holdings (TSE: GLXY), C$0.38

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • March 14: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 2.33% of its circulating supply worth $11.16 million.
  • March 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.
  • March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 2.1% of its circulating supply worth $32.33 million.
  • March 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.66% of its circulating supply worth $79.80 million.
  • March 21: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.39% of circulating supply worth $13.19 million.
  • March 23: Metars Genesis (MRS) to unlock 11.87% of its circulating supply worth $97.6 million.
  • March 23: Mantra (OM) to unlock 0.51% of its circulating supply worth $32.4 million.
• Token Listings
  • March 13: Nano (XNO) to be listed on OKX.
  • March 18: Paws (PAWS) to be listed on Bybit.
  • March 31: Binance to delist USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG.

Conferences

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• A report from Dragonfly Capital indicates that the cost of missing out on potential airdrops has been substantial for American recipients.
• An estimated 5.2 million American crypto users have been excluded from airdrops, missing out on about $3.49 billion to $5.02 billion in token value, according to broader data.
• This might be the beginning of a trend: around 22%–24% of active crypto wallets are American, yet they have faced systematic exclusions. The U.S. government has also missed out, with federal tax revenue losses ranging from $418 million to $1.1 billion, plus $107 million to $284 million in state taxes.
• Regulatory ambiguities in the U.S. have compelled crypto projects to exercise caution. Many have blocked U.S. participants, relocated their operations abroad, or adjusted their airdrop strategies to avoid potential legal actions or penalties.
• This has created a notable divide: while global crypto adoption has surged, the U.S. has lagged, with projects avoiding American users to comply with unclear regulations.
• However, changes in the U.S. policy environment might improve, with signs indicating that regulators and lawmakers are leaning toward less-stringent crypto restrictions, as noted by Dragonfly.

Derivatives Positioning

• BNB, ETH, XLM, DOT, and OM are the only top-25 cryptocurrencies by market cap showing positive perpetual futures cumulative volume deltas over the past 24 hours, indicating net buying pressure.
• Positioning in CME’s bitcoin futures remains light, with open interest at 146K BTC, only slightly higher than the recent multimonth low of 140.84 BTC. This trend is similar for CME’s ETH futures.
• BTC’s CME basis has remained stagnant between an annualized range of 5% and 10%, while ETH’s basis has rebounded to nearly 7% from a recent low of 4%.
• BTC and ETH puts are currently priced higher than calls extending to the May-end expiration on Deribit, reflecting ongoing concerns about downside risks.
• The block flows revealed a long BTC straddle, indicative of a bullish volatility play, along with outright buys in out-of-the-money puts.

Market Movements:

• BTC is steady from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $83,335.37 (24hrs: +0.98%)
• ETH has declined 0.29% to $1,896.33 (24hrs: -0.4%)
• CoinDesk 20 has increased by 0.55% to 2,596.89 (24hrs: +1.65%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate has decreased by 27 basis points to 3.16%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0038% (4.18% annualized) on Binance

• DXY has remained stable at 103.66
• Gold prices have seen a slight increase of 0.15% to $2,943.76/oz
• Silver has dipped by 0.48% to $33.11/oz
• The Nikkei 225 index closed unchanged at 36,790.03
• The Hang Seng index fell by 0.58% to 23,462.65
• The FTSE 100 has risen by 0.38% to 8,573.66
• The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% to 5,372.83
• The DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.2% to 41,350.93
• The S&P 500 closed up 0.49% to 5,599.30
• The Nasdaq index added 1.22% to close at 17,648.45
• The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 0.72% at 24,423.34
• The S&P 40 Latin America Index closed up 0.81% at 2,326.29
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury rate increased by 1 basis point to 4.33%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures remained unchanged at 5,604.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures stayed steady at 19,602.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures remained flat at 41,411.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 61.97 (-0.21%)
• Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02272 (-0.39%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 832 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $46.1
• Total Fees: 5.19 BTC / $428.778
• CME Futures Open Interest: 143,790 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.3 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.04%

Technical Analysis

• The SOL/ETH ratio remains above the bull market trendline, despite the MACD, a momentum indicator, showing negative readings for the fourth consecutive week.
• This indicates underlying strength in the market and suggests a potential for continued outperformance of SOL relative to Ether.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $262.55 (+0.75%), currently down 0.63% at $260.89 in pre-market trading.
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $191.73 (+0.02%), currently down 0.18% at $191.39.
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$17.50 (+1.33%).
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $13.11 (-1.58%), up 1.07% at $13.25.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $7.85 (+1.68%), currently down 0.25% at $7.83.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $8.95 (+3.71%), currently down 1.12% at $8.85.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.10 (-1.94%), currently down 0.62% at $8.05.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.29 (+1.39%).
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $33.60 (+2.44%).
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.43 (+11.96%), currently down 5.18% at $26.01.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $13.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $35.49 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1,117 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$10.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.70 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.555 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The VIX index, often referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, has begun to decline from its December peak, indicating a potential resurgence of risk appetite in the stock market.
• This shift could be beneficial for cryptocurrencies.

While You Were Sleeping

• Poland’s President Urges U.S. to Move Nuclear Warheads to Polish Territory (Financial Times): Andrzej Duda stated that NATO’s nuclear deterrent should advance eastward, citing the alliance’s expansion and Russia’s deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus.
• JPMorgan Predicts the Worst of U.S. Equity Correction Is Likely Over (Bloomberg): JPMorgan strategists noted that U.S. credit markets signal a lower recession risk compared to equities, suggesting that recent stock declines may result from hedge funds unwinding positions rather than economic fundamentals.
• Consumer Anxiety Spans All Income Levels (The Wall Street Journal): U.S. consumers are cutting back on spending as dwindling savings and stagnant wage growth constrain their budgets, while tariff concerns fuel expectations of rising inflation and an economic downturn.
• BOJ Set to Maintain Rates This Month, Anticipated to Hike to 0.75% in Q3, Primarily in July: According to a Reuters Poll, around 90% of economists believe Trump’s tariffs are detrimental to Japan’s economy, while 70% forecast the Bank of Japan will raise rates in the third quarter.
• Crypto Scam: Request Made for International Arrest of Hayden Davis (Página/12): An Argentine lawyer has urged a federal prosecutor to seek an international arrest warrant and Interpol Red Notice for Hayden Davis, following allegations related to the LIBRA memecoin scandal.
• Amid Ripple Legal Hopes, XRP Short Bias Persists; DOGE Approaches Death Cross as BTC Dominance Hits Four-Year High (CoinDesk): XRP’s price shows signs of recovery, yet traders are still betting against it in futures markets, indicating doubt about its rebound. Similar bearish trends can be observed in several other altcoins.

In the Ether