For seven consecutive weeks, the price of Bitcoin has encountered multiple retracements, decreasing from its January peak of $109,000 to a low of approximately $77,000 on March 11.
This decline has led to a loss of roughly 30% of Bitcoin’s (BTC) value, severely impacting the wider cryptocurrency market. In the past month, Ethereum (ETH) has seen a drop of 29%, while Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) faced even greater losses of 40% and 38%, respectively.
A report on March 11 from market intelligence platform Santiment indicates that Bitcoin’s downward trend commenced when key stakeholders began to take profits in mid-February, triggering a succession of sell-offs.
Between February 20 and March 8, 22,702 BTC (nearly $1.8 billion at current values) were transferred from private wallets to exchanges. This activity suggests that investors were preparing to sell, which added to the selling pressure.
Simultaneously, the accumulation by large holders, which had previously supported Bitcoin’s rise following Trump’s election, diminished significantly after his inauguration. Institutional buyers, who aggressively acquired BTC from November to January, started to scale back their holdings in February. Although some high-net-worth investors resumed purchases on March 3, the market has yet to witness a substantial recovery.
There has also been a notable shift in investor sentiment. An increasing number of bearish Bitcoin price forecasts can be observed in social media activity, and many retail investors who entered the market towards the end of 2024 sold at a loss. According to Santiment’s analysis, the average short-term loss for Bitcoin traders is currently -11%, while long-term holders have experienced a -5% decline over the past year.
Alongside internal market dynamics, macroeconomic uncertainty has weighed heavily on cryptocurrency. Investors remain concerned about Trump’s new tariff policies and the potential escalation of a trade war, contributing to increased volatility in digital asset markets.
While the initial excitement stemmed from the administration’s pro-crypto stance, worries regarding the pace of policy and regulatory implementation have dampened expectations.
As of March 11, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $77,200, reflecting a 4% decrease from the previous day. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that Bitcoin could see a drop to around $70,000, which would represent a 36% correction from its peak and align with typical corrections seen in prior bull markets.
He noted that monetary easing from central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, PBOC, ECB, and BOJ, is likely to occur following a decline in U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Many risk-averse investors may choose to wait for central bank intervention to avoid prolonged sideways movement and unrealized losses. Nonetheless, Hayes advises traders to consider buying the dip. Should the $78,000 support level fail to hold, he previously anticipated that Bitcoin may decline to $75,000.
