When Will DOGE Checks Arrive? Experts Explain Why They Might Be a Poor Choice

In the weeks following the initial proposal, uncertainty looms over when Americans might see the suggested $5,000 dividend payments from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

While the envisioned stimulus checks intend to return a share of the savings accrued by DOGE to taxpayers, not all Americans will be eligible for the $5,000 payment that President Donald Trump has promoted.

Are DOGE checks on the horizon? Who is eligible? Here’s the essential information.

Who is eligible for DOGE checks? Low-income Americans may be excluded

As outlined in the initial proposal from James Fishback, CEO of the Azoria investment firm, DOGE would issue payments only to households that fall above a specific income threshold and are classified as “net-income taxpayers” (those who pay more in taxes than they receive back). Consequently, lower-income Americans may not qualify for the payout, as reported by USA TODAY.

“Many low-income households effectively received transfer payments equating to 25 to 30% of their annual income,” Fishback explained regarding the pandemic relief checks, adding, “This is exclusively targeted at households that are net-payers of federal income tax, indicating they have a lower tendency to spend and a higher tendency to save such transfer payments as the DOGE dividend.”

When will DOGE checks be sent out? There’s still a lengthy process ahead

Taxpayers may face a considerable wait before the DOGE stimulus checks are distributed. For the $5,000 checks to reach Americans, DOGE must first achieve its substantial $2 trillion savings target, and any potential checks must receive Congressional approval before they can be sent out.

DOGE claims to have saved over $100 billion by reducing federal jobs and cutting spending, while still contemplating the possibility of $5,000 payouts.

Are DOGE checks a wise choice? Economists express skepticism

A number of economists argue that the DOGE stimulus checks may prove to be a detrimental decision, potentially exacerbating inflation. They suggest that the funds would be better utilized in reducing the budget deficit and alleviating taxes, as noted by the Arizona Republic.

“It would increase the deficit, stimulate immediate consumer spending, and result in inflationary repercussions, which we wish to avoid at this moment,” Judge Glock, research director at the Manhattan Institute, informed Scripps News.

Another issue concerning stimulus checks is inflation. If DOGE starts “issuing large checks to vast numbers of people, that’s going to significantly boost inflation because President Trump is imposing tariffs, which lead to higher prices for goods and services,” commented Jay Zagorsky, a professor at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business, during a CBS News interview.

However, Kevin Hassett, Trump’s former director of the National Economic Council, stated during a February press briefing that the checks would not trigger inflation as the government had already anticipated the expenditure. Fishback echoed this sentiment in recent discussions.

“If we refrain from spending government funds and return it to the populace, should they spend it all, then it balances out,” he remarked to the financial news platform Investopedia. “However, they’re likely to save a significant portion, which would mitigate inflation.”

DOGE may not attain sufficient savings to distribute checks that are “substantial enough” to provoke inflation, according to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution, who communicated with The Associated Press. She dismissed the notion of a DOGE dividend as “absurd.”

“There’s insufficient funds, especially not enough to make a meaningful impact for taxpayers,” Kamarck asserted, recalling her collaboration with Vice President Al Gore to eliminate government waste during the Clinton administration. “He just makes statements,” she added, referring to Musk.

This story was updated to incorporate a video.