Veteran trader Peter Brandt has dismissed overly optimistic forecasts following Bitcoin’s recent surge past $97,000.
His latest technical analysis suggests that the leading cryptocurrency may struggle to exceed the significant $200,000 mark before 2030.
Bitcoin has shown mixed performance recently, registering a daily gain of 0.17% but a decline of 2.85% over the past week, which has influenced this prediction.
The Long Journey to Six Figures
Bitcoin will encounter considerable obstacles in attempting to break through the psychological resistance of $100,000. The 8-week moving average of $97,633 has consistently impeded upward movements, creating a significant barrier for the cryptocurrency.
From a world of unconventional ideas comes this notion – a notion, not a trade. Unless Bitcoin achieves escape velocity through the upper parabolic resistance line, it’s quite unlikely BTC will trade above $200k by the end of this decade. pic.twitter.com/7a5N7Gliw8
The Average True Range (ATR) of 8,988 and the Average Directional Index (ADI) of 40.75 both indicate a strong trend, suggesting increased volatility in the current market conditions.
Historical Patterns Signal Caution
Since 2012, Bitcoin has formed a unique pattern that has garnered the attention of technical analysts. It has been oscillating within a red rising channel, bouncing between two crucial trendlines that act as price barriers.
Notably, Bitcoin has shown a tendency for both abrupt corrections and parabolic rises. Market veterans have become alert due to striking resemblances between the current rally and past cycles. Volume Concerns Arise
The statistics reveal a compelling narrative about market participation. The current rally may lack stability, as Bitcoin’s 20-period volume total of 245,600 is relatively low when compared to other breakout scenarios.
Sustaining a long-term upward trajectory may be difficult without a notable surge in trading volume. For analysts monitoring Bitcoin’s next significant move, this low volume has emerged as a pressing concern. Support and Resistance: Defining the Battle Lines
Bitcoin’s future hinges on critical price levels that could dictate its direction. Strong support is established in the $60,000 to $70,000 range, while formidable resistance resides between $100,000 and $120,000.
Should conditions deteriorate, Bitcoin may retrace to the lower bounds of its long-term channel, estimated around $40,000 to $50,000.
Brandt’s analysis posits that Bitcoin’s journey to $200,000 by 2030 is improbable without a significant breakthrough above the upper limits of its parabolic trend.
The experienced trader emphasizes the need for sustained momentum and the capability to overcome essential resistance levels to achieve such elevated valuations.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
