It’s clear that Donald Trump would like to authorize more checks similar to these COVID relief payments.
Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Republican lawmakers anxiously observing Elon Musk’s DOGE may feel reassured that any financial gains from scaling back federal programs would ease their financial burdens. Cuts implemented by quick executive actions mean Congress won’t need to legislate those reductions to address debts and deficits, which concern some members, or to fund tax cuts, which are a priority for all.
However, Musk seems to have a differing plan—returning savings directly to taxpayers via a “DOGE Dividend,” as reported by Fortune:
Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency claims to be cutting the federal budget, purportedly reducing the deficit. Yet, he is now considering using some of these funds to issue rebate checks to citizens.
On Twitter/X Tuesday afternoon, Musk remarked that he would pursue the “DOGE Dividend” idea and mentioned he would “check with the President.” This was in response to a proposition by James Fishback, CEO and co-founder of the right-leaning investment firm Azoria, which previously set up an anti-woke ETF that excluded companies prioritizing DEI hiring.
Fishback estimates that if DOGE saves $2 trillion (a figure that encompasses a substantial portion of the government’s discretionary spending and which Musk has since distanced himself from), distributing 20 percent to Americans would equate to $5,000 per household, with checks sent out after DOGE’s expiration next July.
Musk’s response—“Will check with the president”—is concerning, as there’s likely nothing Donald Trump prefers more than sending out checks with his name on them, a sentiment evident during the COVID stimulus efforts. The proposed DOGE Dividends would likely appeal to many; even those skeptical of government appreciate knowing those checks will clear. It’s a politically attractive notion in the current climate.
Sadly, this concept is fundamentally flawed and unfeasible, even if (a) one trusts DOGE’s savings projections (often overly optimistic) and (b) believes Musk (or Trump) can reallocate funds without explicit congressional approval, which seems unlikely.
The most comparable initiative we’ve observed to the DOGE Dividend concept is Colorado’s Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR), embraced by voters via a constitutional amendment in 1992. TABOR imposes constraints on state spending based on revenue growth alongside an inflation adjustment, mandating that any “excess” funds be refunded to taxpayers through periodic checks, with exemptions typically dependent on voter approval (usually granted). While state lawmakers possess some discretion in how these refunds are structured, TABOR’s system has often been undermined over the years, raising doubts about its effectiveness, mainly serving to complicate Colorado’s budgetary process while promoting the current governing party as a benevolent force.
Despite advocacy from conservative groups (notably the American Legislative Exchange Council) for the TABOR approach, state legislatures and governors have typically shunned the notion of restricting their own powers and creating an automatic rebate mechanism perceived as an entitlement by taxpayers. Elevating this problematic idea to the federal level would likely introduce chaos and significant disparity.
For instance, Fishback’s proposal would seemingly offer DOGE Dividends solely to households with a net federal income tax liability. Due to low incomes and refundable tax credits, nearly half of U.S. households (akin to Mitt Romney’s famous “47 percent” of Americans who have no investments in the system) wouldn’t qualify. If DOGE’s “savings” stem from cuts to programs aiding low-income communities, redistributing that wealth would imply a regressive income transfer.
However, the most significant issue with DOGE Dividends, apart from their questionable legality, is that, unlike Colorado with TABOR, the U.S. government does not operate on a balanced budget. Additionally, the financial strategies of the Trump administration are likely to exacerbate the deficit crisis. Any potential savings from DOGE’s cuts to federal employees and programs are already earmarked. If this concept persists, a president eager to distribute checks and a public inclined to accept them might compel Republicans to confront essential fiscal realities. Don’t anticipate budgeting your DOGE Dividend anytime soon.
